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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 4th, 2023–Jan 5th, 2023
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

An inversion over the past few days has kept the cool air in the lower elevations and warm air in alpine terrain. The snowpack is not really changing at this time. Persistent slabs overlying a weak facetted "house of cards" snowpack. Avoid big features and be patient for Ullr to maybe give us some snow.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Isolated recent natural avalanche activity up to size 2.5 from Alpine features. These slides initiated as a persistent slab and then stepped to ground. A few loose dry were also observed from steep unskiable terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Large surface hoar was found today up to 2200m. This may be a layer to watch in the future.

Otherwise not much is changing in the snowpack (and that's not a good thing!). The mid-December surface hoar layer down 30cm at Treeline is reacting as a persistent slab with compression tests in the moderate range. Below this, the remainder of the snowpack is heavily facetted. Any avalanche triggered in the upper snowpack will almost certainly step down to the ground.

Forecasters are approaching all terrain conservatively and do not have much confidence in the snow pack, as it's one of the worst we've seen in many, many years.

Weather Summary

High pressure continues, bringing mainly clear skies and no precipitation. An inversion with warmer temperatures at higher elevations has been persistent over the past few days and we expect it to continue into the next few days.

Burn a pair of you favorite old ski socks to try to encourage the Ullr to create some snow for us.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
  • Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

This layer is easy to trigger from thin, weak shallow areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

If triggered the persistent slab is very likely to steep down to the deeper instability and involve the entire winter's snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5