Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 1st, 2023 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs, Persistent Slabs and Loose Dry.
MH,
Avalanche Canada
We are entering a period where avalanche activity will taper off, and the chance of triggering a buried weak layer becomes less likely. However, if triggered, the avalanche could be large and destructive. Choose low-consequence terrain features and manage your group appropriately.
High-quality, deep pow can be found throughout the Park.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Sunday several size 2-2.5 storm slab avalanches were observed from steep, wind-loaded terrain, and several size 1-1.5 dry loose avalanches from steep and rocky solar aspects.
Reports of human-triggered storm slab up to size 1.5 from the past few days from ridgeline start zones and steep unsupported terrain features.
Snowpack Summary
The top 30cm of snow is low-density and provides great powder turns. The Dec 23 facet interface is down ~70cm but is rounding and gaining strength. The Dec 5 and Nov 17 surface hoar layers have been less reactive recently but had been exhibiting 'sudden' results in snowpack tests.
Weather Summary
A ridge of high pressure persists in the area and will bring a mix of sun and cloud, light ridgetop winds, and temperatures ranging from -4 to -10.
Small amounts of snow are in the forecast for Friday.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
- Avoid convexities, steep unsupported terrain and rocky outcroppings.
- If triggered, loose dry avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
Problems
Storm Slabs
There are several potential failure planes within the top 50-70cm of storm snow. This new snow fell on a thin and facetted snowpack, creating a weak interface (Dec. 23rd) that continues to show signs of reactivity.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
Several persistent weak layers are present in the mid to lower snowpack. These layers are still showing hard, sudden results in snowpack tests. Though becoming less likely to trigger, the resulting avalanche could be quite large.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Dry
The recent low-density storm snow may be sensitive to its first prolonged exposure to the sun, which will increase the likelihood of dry loose avalanches from steep, rocky terrain features on solar aspects. These smaller avalanches could potentially trigger deeper instabilities in the snowpack.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 2nd, 2023 4:00PM
