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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 12th, 2015–Nov 13th, 2015
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Little Yoho.

With large amounts of snow currently showing in forecasts, we expect avalanche activity to begin Friday and continue through the weekend. Ice climbers should avoid avalanche terrain on Friday and Saturday. This storm looks big!

Weather Forecast

A powerful low will exert its influence over the region beginning Thursday evening. Accumulations of 50-100 cm of snow at treeline, high winds, and freezing levels rising to near 2000 m have been forecast to appear by the time the system passes on Sunday. With the heavy loading expected, an avalanche cycle will likely begin on Friday.

Snowpack Summary

35-50 cm of unconsolidated snow exist at treeline elevations throughout the forecast area. A 5mm layer of surface hoar that was reported in some areas has been buried by several cm of new snow yesterday (November 11 surface hoar). Some soft wind slabs exist at higher alpine elevations.

Avalanche Summary

Over the past five days slabs and loose snow avalanches (up to size 2.5) have been triggered and are running naturally from alpine features. Tuesday, at Bow Summit, a size 1.5 avalanche was remotely triggered on the ground, and on the Wapta a group remotely triggered a size 2 on Mt. Olive.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Friday

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The new snow will be warm, heavy and wind driven: perfect for slab development. New slabs will likely bond poorly to the weak dry snowpack that currently exists in most areas and the crusts and surface hoar we are hearing about will not help either.

  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.
  • The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Dry

The new snow will fail naturally off of very steep features and will be susceptible to human triggering in steep areas. Avoid confined features where these events can become focused, and manage your group carefully to avoid getting caught.

  • The volume of sluffing could knock you over; choose your climb carefully and belay when exposed.
  • Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2