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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2018–Dec 16th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Olympics.

Early season conditions exist in the Hurricane Ridge area with large variations in snow cover. Avoid terrain where even a small avalanche could cause injury paired with terrain traps like exposed rocks and vegetation. 

Discussion

Discussion 

Low snow conditions continue to limit the overall avalanche hazard in the Olympics. Snow cover varies widely by elevation and especially aspect.

On windward southerly facing terrain, much of the area is void of snow cover. While on shaded and wind loaded north to east facing terrain the snow-depths averaged about 4 feet as of Thursday afternoon.

Older wind slabs may linger on lee aspects above treeline, but should be stubborn and unlikely to trigger given the lack of recent snow and warm temperatures. 

Forecast schedule

For the 2018-19 winter season, avalanche hazard ratings will be issued for the Olympics Friday through Sunday and during holidays.

On days that the Hurricane Ridge road is closed, No Rating will be applied. We will continue to provide general snowpack and weather summaries for the Hurricane Ridge area even when No Rating is issued. 

Snowpack Discussion

We made it through our first strong winter storm and are headed into a weekend with dangerous and fickle avalanche conditions. Thick slabs of new snow (2-5 feet) are perched above a weak layer of faceted crystals. Avalanches triggered on this layer could be very large and life-threatening.

Reports continue to come in of very large natural and explosives triggered avalanches in the northern and eastern zones. For perspective, several of these slides have been classified as D3, or large enough to destroy a house.

Anyone accessing alpine areas should limit their exposure to areas where avalanches start, run and stop. In some places, the weak snow will talk to you by whumpfing and cracking. In other places, the heavy blanket of new snow is thick enough that it can give a false sense of stability while it masks the dangerous layering below.

Approximate snow totals from 12/10 - 12/14:  

  • Mt. Baker: 55”

  • Washington Pass: 29”

  • Stevens Pass: 37”

  • Snoqualmie Pass: 28”

  • Paradise: 38”

  • Mt. Hood Meadows: 13”

  • Olympics: mostly rain

The change in the snowpack is pretty dramatic with elevation. The height of snow decreases rapidly below 4500’ at Baker and Washington Pass, 5500’ at Crystal/Rainier. The Passes have better low elevation coverage, but it's still pretty thin below 4000’. With additional warm storms in the forecast, this pattern is expected to continue for a while.

Be cautious and get home safe.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.