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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 8th, 2014–Apr 9th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

How does warming and solar radiation influence the snowpack? How do I manage cornice problems? Check out the new Forecaster Blog.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

An upper level ridge will keep the region fairly dry with a mix of sun and cloud through the forecast period. Wednesday/ Thursday: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Ridgetop winds light-moderate from the west. Freezing levels near 1300 m. Friday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Ridgetop winds light from the SW. Freezing levels rising to 1900 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new observations have been reported. On Sunday, small loose dry avalanches were seen from steep rocky terrain features. Loose wet avalanches were also seen on solar aspects. Natural avalanche activity may spike with solar radiation on Wednesday. Large, weak sagging cornices threaten slopes below if they fail.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20 cm of new snow sits above a mix of surface hoar, facets and melt freeze crusts. The new snow seems to have a poor bond to old surfaces and isolated wind slabs likely exist. Surface snow has become moist on most aspects with the warmer temperatures and rising freezing levels. Large sagging cornices threaten slopes and could fail when the sun comes out. Snowpack tests have been producing hard resistant planar shears on the late March crust down 30-50 cm and the upper snowpack has strengthened.A couple persistent weak layers exist deeper in the snowpack. The March melt-freeze crust/surface hoar is reported to be down 60 - 100cm. The February crust/facet/surface hoar layer is now deeply buried down 150 - 250cm. These layers are mostly inactive at this time, but could re-awaken with extended warming, solar influence and large triggers like cornice fall.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.