Confidence
Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Thursday: Cloudy skies with intermittent wet flurries building through the day. Alpine temperatures could reach -2 with freezing levels at 1500m. Winds should be light west-southwesterly. 10-20cm are possible with higher amounts in the South end of the region.Friday: Expect continued unsettled skies with more isolated flurries, alpine temperatures around -3 and light westerly winds. Freezing levels could again reach 1500m. Limited accumulations.Saturday: Clouds linger through the morning, with a chance of clearing late in the day. Alpine temperatures should be around -3 with continuing light west-southwest winds.
Avalanche Summary
Recent avalanches have been limited to loose wet sluff to size 1.5.
Snowpack Summary
North and Northeast aspects above 2000m continue to hold up to 20cm of dry snow, otherwise, the surface condition is crusts. The carrying strength of the crusts vary depending on aspect and elevation as well as proximity to rocks, etc.... Generally speaking, the crusts have been going moist in the afternoon and then refreezing at night in all but the lowest terrain. Immediate lee features in the high alpine hold isolated softslabs that may still be reactive to rider triggering. Planar results have been observed in sheltered start zones. In some places outflow winds have reverse loaded pockets of the most recent storm snow onto the melt freeze surfaces of south facing slopes, creating small, reactive slabs in unusual places.In the upper snowpack (down 50-70cm) a significant melt-freeze crust lingers. Some facetting has been observed above and below this crust. At the same interface spotty surface hoar may linger on high, sheltered north facing terrain. There has been no recent stability test results on this layer.Cornices are huge and will continue to grow with the forecasted precipitation.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.