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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 10th, 2016–Jan 11th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

It looks like one more mainly dry day before the snow returns. Avalanche danger will rise as new snow accumulates. How quickly this happens depends on how much snow and wind we see.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

Monday: Increasing cloud with snow in the afternoon. The freezing level is around 500-600 m. Ridge winds should increase to moderate from the S-SW. Tuesday: Periods of snow – 15-25 cm from Monday evening through Tuesday. The freezing level is around 800 m. Winds are moderate to strong from the SW. Wednesday: Cloudy with light snow. The freezing level is near 800 m and winds ease to light from the W-NW.

Avalanche Summary

Some minor loose snow sluffing has been observed but there are no new reports of slab avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

10-15 cm of dry snow sits on a variety of old surfaces including a melt-freeze crust on solar aspects in the alpine, smooth old snow on higher elevation lee slopes, and well-developed surface hoar in sheltered areas at treeline and lower elevations. This dry surface snow is capped by a sun crust on steep solar aspects, or a fresh layer of surface hoar on sheltered and shady slopes at all elevations. Variable winds have created soft wind slabs in lee and cross-loaded terrain in alpine areas. The mid and lower snowpack is generally strong, with the exception of shallow snowpack areas.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.