Avalanche Forecast

Freezing levels on Wednesday should begin to rise on Wednesday. Increasing high and mid clouds should be seen in the afternoon. Recent storm snow should continue to settle, but filtered sunshine and increasing temperatures in the afternoon may activate loose avalanches predominately on steeper southerly slopes. Especially watch near and above treeline, where more snow is available for entrainment and could funnel you into a terrain trap.  

Expect a higher regional likelihood of finding sensitive wind slab on N-SE aspects near the Cascade crest Wednesday. Approach wind-loaded slopes with caution and practice conservative decision making especially when pushing into the near/above treeline band.

In the Washington Pass area, storm slabs releasing down a the Jan 5th crust/facet interface deserves your attention. Watch for cracking and collapsing while traveling as obvious instability clues and generally be conservative near avalanche terrain. There's plenty of good skiing to be found on lower angled slopes even in the alpine. This zone will have a higher danger rating than the other east slopes zones. 

As a general backcountry travel safety note, tread carefully at lower elevations and on wind scoured aspects where terrain hazards (exposed rocks, trees, streams, etc.) are present. 

Strong southwest flow carried a wet front across the Cascades Saturday night. This front tapped subtropical moisture but cold air trapped on the east side kept 48 hr water amounts through Mon AM of half an inch to 2 inches mainly in the form of snow. Snow was most significant in the northeast and central east Cascades with about 12-24 inches at Holden and in the Washington Pass area again through Mon morning. 

The North Cascade Mountain Guides in the Washington Pass Monday reported the storm snow had formed a soft but cohesive slab and collapsing was observed on a facet/crust combo down 70 cm to the Jan 5th crust. This layer was reactive in snowpit tests with propagation and one sizeable avalanche in the Cutthroat Drainage may have released down to this layer. 

We have no new information about the non-reactive PWL in the Jove Peak area from last week, but following this storm cycle it is likely more than 1 meter down and even harder for a human to trigger. Sensitive soft wind slab has been reported in the Stevens Pass area, and this avalanche problem likely extends into the neighboring area along the east slopes.

An avalanche class near Mission Ridge on Saturday reported via the NWAC Observations that facets between crust layers in the mid pack gave a Q1 shear but did not show a tendency to propagate via an ECT. The Mission Ridge ski patrol Sunday reported a surface rain crust with no natural or ski cut avalanches.

The south-east Cascades and central-east Cascades away from the crest will likely have a lower avalanche danger.   

The overall snowpack remains well below normal for this time of year and some windward or southerly aspects have little if any snow cover.