Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering large avalanches is not out of the question. You can greatly reduce your risk by avoiding steep, wind-affected, rocky slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    While unlikely, we can't write off triggering large avalanches in middle and upper elevation terrain. Unfortunately, you may not receive any obvious signs of instability before triggering one of these lingering monsters. There are two sets of weak interfaces to be aware of:

    1. Deeply buried weak facets — Found near the ground on middle and upper elevation slopes, especially those facing away from the sun. Triggering a slide on this layer is most likely in windy and/or rocky areas where the snowpack depth is variable and in more sheltered terrain where the snowpack is around 3 feet deep.
    2. Rain crusts or crust + facet combinations — Found in the upper half of the snowpack on most middle elevation slopes. Evidence suggests that these are healing, but their high variability with elevation and aspect makes their behavior hard to predict.

    You can reduce the chances of triggering these avalanches by avoiding steep, wind-affected, or rocky slopes.

    Additional Discussion: You may be able to trigger wind slab avalanches that formed near ridgelines and in cross-loaded areas on the sides of gullies.  Look for recent cornice growth, dunes, or ripples in the snow surface. These are signs the wind has been at work, transporting snow.

    (12/28/2025) Large natural avalanches. Paradise Peak and West Fork Big Creek. Photo: Sawtooth Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

Today's cloudy weather and light snowfall will do little to change the avalanche equation. That equation is not an easy one to solve right now because of the low probability - high consequence snowpack setup we've got in the Sawtooths and Western Smokys. Observations continue to show instability in deeper buried weak layers yet also indicate that most of the upper snowpack problems are healing and difficult to trigger. 

Whether it's thin Wind Slabs or a much larger Persistent Slab, avoiding steep, rocky slopes with stiff slabs near the surface will reduce the odds you find trouble.

We'd like to offer a special thanks to all those that submitted observations over the past couple of weeks! The quantity and quality of observations really helped us put the puzzle of avalanche conditions together, especially during the wild holiday multi-day storm event!

Regions covered