Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Though trending down, the avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, wind drifted slopes near and above treeline that face NW through E, and deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches 3'-5' deep are possible if not likely in these areas. Continue to avoid this kind of terrain.

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on all mid and upper elevation slopes where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Look for fresh drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Cracking is a sign of instability.

Most avalanche accidents occur during the period when the danger begins to move between Considerable and Moderate or vice versa. Keep your guard up. A triggered, large avalanche would be unsurvivable.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    3

    A heavy load of recent, and wind drifted snow has been added to a pre-existing slab on top of a persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow at the base of the snowpack. This has resulted in widespread natural avalanche activity on northerly aspects. The recent load has provided quite a thump, and as the dust settles so to speak, we should see a trend towards greater stability. With the magnitude of these avalanches, however, we need to give things some time. It is still possible if not likely to trigger one of these monsters. Likely trigger points include shallow, rocky areas, along slope margins, or on steep convexities.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Increased southerly winds have created fresh deposits of wind drifted snow on northerly aspects. Shifting wind directions since Friday's storm have blown and drifted snow on to all aspects near and above treeline. Older wind slabs have likely gained strength over the past few days, but you may still find some sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider lurking just about everywhere in wind exposed terrain. Wind slabs form on leeward slopes just below ridge crests. They can also be found on the leeward sides of terrain features such as sub ridges, gully walls, and rock outcroppings. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability. On northerly aspects, wind drifted snow has added stress to older slabs on top of a buried persistent weak layer and dangerous, human triggered avalanches 3'-5' deep are possible. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes.

Special Announcement

Road Conditions: Grand County plowed the road to the Geyser Pass Trailhead yesterday!

Grooming: LUNA volunteers dug out the equipment and began packing yesterday. We'll be up today to cut out trees. Look for full grooming later in the week,

Recent Activity

Widespread natural avalanche activity on northerly aspects was reported from the backcountry yesterday. Go here for the complete list.

Brian Murdock and I came up on this very large, natural avalanche off the Laurel Ridge into Horse Creek.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 49" Wind WSW 20-30 G40 Temp 27F

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

Storm Totals in Gold Basin

Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

NWS Weather Forecast

Southerly winds have been blowing in the 20-30 mph range since yesterday morning with gusts as high as 50 mph along the highest ridge tops. Clouds began spreading over the region last night as a short wave trough on a northwest flow clips by to the north. Today we should see partly sunny skies, blustery westerly winds, and highs in the low 20's. Northwest flow brings another system to the north on Wednesday.

Snowpack

Observers continue to report widespread, deep, and very large natural avalanches on northerly aspects from Friday's storm event. Dave Garcia and Nate Ament sent in this observation from a trip to the North Group yesterday. On Sunday, Brian Murdock and I were able to get a close up look at this avalanche off the Laurel Ridge into Horse Creek that was 4.5' deep and 1500' wide. This was a hard slab avalanche failing on a persistent weak layer of of sugary, faceted snow at the base of the snow pack, the result of early season, mid-October snow. This persistent weak layer had become largely non-reactive through the last two weeks of December, but 22" of snow at nearly 2.5" Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) in 16 hours proved to be too much of a load. The recent load has provided quite a thump, and as the dust settles so to speak, we should see a trend towards greater stability. With the magnitude of these avalanches, we need to give things some time however. It is still possible if not likely to trigger one of these monsters. Likely trigger points include shallow, rocky areas, along slope margins, or on steep convexities.

Local AIARE instructor and guide Evan Clapper was up yesterday and he observed continuous wind loading on to northerly aspects above treeline. He also noted the continued but lessening potential for triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche and for now he is sticking with the mantra "Keep it Mellow." Solid advice.

General Announcements

Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.

This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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