Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Today will be the warmest day of the week thus far. Rebounding temperatures and strong solar heating will cause snow surfaces to destabilize as the day progresses. Wet loose avalanches will be possible for riders to trigger near and above treeline on steep southerly slopes holding wet and unconsolidated snow. Roller balls and point releases are precursors to this problem. Default to shadier aspects and exit avalanche terrain before peak warming occurs to mitigate this hazard. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Heightened avalanche danger will develop across the forecast region as daytime warming peaks. The combination of a poor overnight freeze, solar input, calm winds, and temperatures climbing into the mid 50s, is a recipe for snow surfaces to become weak. Steep slopes near and above treeline that face the sun will be the first to receive warming. While the severity of these avalanches remains relatively low, their sensitivity and distribution remain high. The physical amount of snow capable of sliding is variable from the alpine to the forest bottom. The majority of slopes hold a relatively shallow amount of available surface snow, and a stout underlying crust will deter snow from gouging deeper. Nevertheless, wet snow is dynamic in the way it can move and entrain additional snow, making terrain management and timing a top priority. Likely trigger points will be near or beneath rock outcroppings and cliff bands, as these features amplify the radiative heating process of the surrounding snow. Observe for roller balls, point releases, and areas holding wet unconsolidated snow that exceed the height of your boot cuff. Feel and test for wet snow by using representative and safe test slopes or by simply throwing a snowball downhill and seeing if it collects snow easily. When in doubt, use the terrain to your advantage and anticipate areas where you might encounter unstable snow.

    Skier triggered wet loose slides beneath Powder Bowl

    Photo: Eric Falconer

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Large cornices adorn many ridgelines and predominantly overhang leeward west, north, and east facing slopes. The Castle Lake area is at heightened risk for cornice fall. A very large cornice overhangs the ridgeline above Heart Lake. Several large cornice chunks have already released and tumbled down to areas some would believe to be “safe." They are not. Travelers should avoid going near or beneath this feature in the days to come. This zone certainly has a lot to offer: easy access, beautiful views, and supportable conditions. Enjoy it, but don't let your guard down or underestimate the severity of this hazard.   

    Castle Lake cornices

    Photo: Eric Falconer

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday, minor wet loose avalanche activity was observed near treeline on Mount Shasta. Find out more HERE.This morning, mountain temperatures are already sitting several degrees warmer than yesterday. A window for corn conditions does exist, though it may be short lived due to a poor overnight refreeze with limited wind chill. Overhead hazard is also a very real threat today. On the upper mountain, large amounts of rime ice are plastered on predominant ridgelines and terrain features. Falling rime ice has the potential to initiate wet loose slides and can fall at deadly speeds. Keep your eyes to the sky, wear a helmet, and minimize your time spent under these features. Today will be the crescendo of nice weather. Enjoy it, but make sure to wear plenty of sunscreen! Slight uncertainty exists about whether developing high cloud cover will hinder the warming processes of snow surfaces, and to what extent. Only presence and time will tell. April 14th will be our last daily forecast for the season.  To celebrate an excellent season, please join us for our Community and Member Appreciation Party where we will have FREE food, drinks, and live music!

Regions covered