Avalanche forecast

Ogden

Issued Mar 5, 2026valid to Mar 6, 2026Utah Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger

Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline

Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

MODERATE avalanche danger exists on most slopes as a winter storm arrives with more snow and wind throughout the day. You will become increasingly likely to trigger slabs of wind-drifted snow at mid- and upper-elevations large enough to catch and carry you. On most mid- and upper- elevation slopes facing W-N-E, it will be possible to have one of these smaller slides step down to a buried persistent weak layer (PWL) failing 1-3 feet deep that could kill you.

Keep in mind that loose, dry sluffs of new snow will be able to knock you off balance in steeper terrain.

Avalanche problems

Wind Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
2
There were pockets of wind-drifted snow before 2-4 inches of additional snow fell overnight, with another 2-6 inches falling throughout the day today. Winds will stay at perfect loading speeds, meaning two things:

New, more reactive wind slabs will develop out of the newer snow.

Older, more stubborn pockets will be harder to identify as the new snow covers the older, textured snow surfaces.

You will be able to trigger both new and old wind slabs at mid- and upper-elevations on all aspects. These will be most likely at upper elevations, near ridgelines and on exposed mid-slope catchment areas like gullies and convex rolls on slopes facing SE-E-NE. These can be as small as a pocket around your machine's ski, or big enough to wipe a rider off a slope. These may propagate wider than expected and be triggered from a distance if they fail down into the weak faceted snow from January (DJL)—more on that below.

New snow: In areas with higher accumulations, be aware of the possibility of triggering loose, dry sluffs of new snow that may run far and fast on previous crusts. In protected mid- to low-elevation areas, know that slabs of new snow may develop and possibly propagate widely if deposited on weaker snow or slick old crusts.
Persistent Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
2
This season's been nothing but irregular, and the Dry January Layer (DJL) is no exception right now. The weak, old snow that sat out during January is still there, and has become damp to wet in some locations with the warmer weather in the recent days. While the layer has trended more stubborn since it's first loading event in recent weeks, wet facets do weird things.

On Cutler Ridge yesterday, the wetted DJL to propagated with easy force (ECTP3) on our first test—see the surprising video below—before not being able to get the layer to propagate at all in the next 4 tests we conducted (ECTN). This just shows the irregularity with the snowpack this year, and how high our uncertainty should be heading in to this storm. This wet, warm, and weird setup is going to be a bit of a puzzle in how exactly it reacts to a sizeable loading event.

As we add more load and stress to this layer with new snow today, know it may be increasingly likely to trigger a slab on the PWL on mid- (NW-N-E) and upper elevation (W-N-E)slopes up to 3 feet deep. Any new snow or wind slab avalanches could step down into this weak, old snow and create a much larger slide than modest new snow totals might make you expect. This possibility is more likely in and along thinner, rocky snowpack areas.

I would approach any steep slope that harbors this layer of facets with caution.

Special Announcement

All four final avalanche accident reports (Caribou Basin, Butler Basin, Lake Mary Chutes, and Ant Knolls) are now published. These reports represent four avalanche fatalities in the five days between February 18th-February 22nd. You can find them all HERE>

Drone photo of the Caribou avalanche after avalanche control work had been conducted to reduce the risk to the SAR teams.

Thank you to everyone involved for sharing information. As with all avalanche accidents, we hope to learn something to prevent future accidents. Our deepest condolences go out to the families, friends, rescuers, and everyone affected by these tragic accidents.

Recent Activity

Wet loose activity near Island Peak, Ben Lomond Area: myself and Taylor Lais spotted wet loose activity near Island Peak from Cutler Ridge yesterday that likely ran the day prior during the strong sun.

Wind slabs: Ski areas reported fairly active conditions two days ago, with numerous ski cut and explosive-triggered well-connected wind slabs, mostly at upper elevations. This seemed to be more pronounced along the Ogden Skyline.

Snow and Weather

Yesterday, I regretted my decision to wear long johns as I trodded along (in trail runners) up to snowline on Cutler Ridge in the unforgiving sun. Temps were above freezing up to mid-elevations, with light to moderate winds out of the west continuing overnight as a cold front moved in of a system arriving on NW flow.

This morning, temps have happily dropped into the high teens to low 20s F along the Ogden Skyline as 2-4 inches of fresh new snow lies on the ground from last night. Winds out of the NW will shift to the N during the day, blowing in the 10s-20s mph. Forecast precip totals for the day have dropped a bit in recent days, but lake effect could double these totals. By the end of the day, we can expect the following in addition to last night's snowfall:

Ogden Skyline: 1-4 inches of snow // 0.1-0.3 inches of H2O
Powder Mountain: 2-6 inches snow // 0.1-0.4 inches H2O
Monte Cristo: 1-4 inches of snow // .05-0.15 inches of H2O

Tonight into tomorrow, we can expect similar snowfall and weather to continue, with some more snowfall in store for us. The long range is a bit a of puzzle for now, so check back tomorrow for more details. Our hardworking partners at the NWS issued a Winter Weather Advisory including the Ogden area.

General Announcements

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures