Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on all steep slopes that still have snow and human triggered, wet-loose and wet-slab avalanches are possible. Special attention should be paid to northerly facing slopes where layers of weak faceted snow still remain susceptible to melt water percolating through the snowpack. Areas with complex, rocky, extreme terrain are particularly suspect. Punchy, unsupportable, or sloppy wet snow indicate potentially unstable conditions. Avoid avalanche terrain where these signs are present.

Gray on the rose indicates areas that are mostly clear of snow. Some variations occur.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3

    Human triggered wet-loose and wet-slab avalanches remain possible on all aspects that have snow. The danger is significantly less on solar aspects. In these areas, you are most likely to encounter small, loose wet avalanches. The primary concern continues to be wet-slab avalanches, and you are most likely to encounter these on slopes facing the north half of the compass. On many slopes, liquid water has percolated all the way through the snowpack to the ground. In these areas, wallowing in "trapdoor" conditions and having the entire snowpack sluff away beneath you are potential scenarios. On upper elevation northerly aspects, meltwater my not yet have made it down to the February 11 faceted layer and over the coming days, the potential for wet slab avalanches will remain elevated in these areas. Wet slab avalanches are notoriously difficult to predict, but given the current conditions, the rewards just don't justify the risks to be in avalanche terrain.

Special Announcement

Geyser Pass Road Conditions: The road is melted down to dirt.

Grooming: Grooming is done for the season.

A new version the UAC's mobile app has been released with many new features and performance improvements. Download our app today, available on iPhone and Android.

After a difficult week in February that included four avalanche fatalities, UAC forecasters will host a community debrief to discuss the conditions surrounding these accidents. We will review the weather and snowpack patterns, share observations from the field, and discuss lessons learned. This event will not be live but include time for questions and discussion, with the goal of learning together as a community. Please use this form to submit questions for review.

Recent Activity

On Friday, I ran across this large, natural wet slab avalanche in Talking Mountain Cirque. A likely suspect and frequent runner during March and April heatwaves, this nevertheless, illustrates the type of problem we are dealing with.

See the full avalanche database.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 75" Depth at Gold Basin: 21"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SW 10-15 Temp: 42°F

Weather

Same story. Overnight temperatures remained above freezing and they'll rise to the mid and upper 50's today. We should see a few high clouds and increasing westerly winds. Temperatures grow increasingly warmer throughout the week.

General Conditions

The great melt off continues and over the weekend you could almost see it happen right in front of your eyes. Most south facing terrain is bare and access is becoming increasingly more difficult with dirt patches on the road above the Geyser Pass winter trailhead, and on the trail into Gold Basin. Brian Sparks was up yesterday and I lifted the photo below from his Instagram page that shows bare ground in Laurel Meadow. The remaining snow varies from semi-supportable and punchy, to wet and sloppy as the days heat up. For more on that, see my video from Friday below.

Bare ground in Laurel Meadow. Brian Sparks photo.

See all Moab observations here.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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