Avalanche forecast

Tetons

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

It remains possible to trigger a wet slab avalanche this morning until cloud cover, wind, light accumulating snowfall  and a refreeze stabilize the snow. Shaded, northerly aspects may be a better option for riding without the risk of wet, slushy or icy surfaces. Evaluate snow, weather and terrain carefully today if you choose to go into avalanche terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wet slabs continue to be a concern this morning due to warm temperatures overnight and the potential for periods of sunshine this morning. Partial cloud cover in the mountains overnight limited the refreezing that occurred earlier this week so the potential for water flowing through the snowpack remains. Water continues to drain through the snowpack from yesterday's warmth with more flow potentially this morning on solar aspects.  This risk exists primarily around rocky terrain where rocks radiate heat and direct water into the snowpack.  Cloud cover and wind should cool down surfaces and help lock up the snowpack as the day progresses. This avalanche problem is trending towards unlikely today as wind and cloud cover increase. 

    (3/19/2024) This avalanche was triggered by a snowcat pushing snow onto a ski slope Tuesday afternoon. 

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Hard slabs 3-5 feet thick overlay weak snow that formed earlier in the season. Shallow, rocky, and unsupported terrain on the north half of the compass is where this problem has been most recently active. Thin areas in the snowpack can act as trigger points and are most common in these locations. It is currently unlikely that a human would trigger one of these slabs. Larger triggers, like cornice fall or surface snow avalanches, still have the potential to impact weak layers buried deeply in the snowpack and initiate a much larger avalanche. 

    Cornice Fall: Cornices have grown large and failures are possible, especially during the heat of the day. Give cornices a wide margin and avoid lingering under heavily corniced ridgelines. Right now, cornice falls are the most likely way to trigger a very large persistent slab avalanche.

    (3/5/2024)

    Very large persistent slab avalanche that failed during the early March storm cycle. This terrain characterizes where this problem is most active. Very steep, unsupported slopes near cliffs. Also note the large cornices and potential trigger. 

    Photo: Dan Hays

Avalanche Discussion

Wet slab avalanches are notoriously hard to forecast. Not only is the energy balance difficult to measure but snowpack structure and specifically stratigraphy of crusts within the snowpack all play a role in confounding efforts to make any accurate prediction, especially across wide geographic areas. Lacking the fancy instrumentation to measure  the energy balance in the snowpack, one is left with air temperature trends and direct observations, specifically triggers running around in the mountains. Fortunately, or unfortunately depending on your perspective, there aren't alot of triggers to give feedback or confirm or refute stability when conditions turn wet, variable and less than ideal.  Today we are transtioning from a warm, wet snowpack and moving towards a colder, snowier one. Until we arrive there, which should happen overnight or in the next couple of days, we are left with icy surfaces, some freewater in the snowpack and challenging conditions in which to find good riding conditions. If you go out in the mountains today, remember that water and heat remain deeper in the snowpack, despite what may be an icy surface right beneath your feet.

If you choose to make today a rest day (suggested option) or otherwise have some free time, public avalanche forecasting operations like ours would love to have your help improving our product.  Please take some time to complete the survey below. Similar studies are responsible for what is widely regarding as improvements in public forecast products like the BTAC platform but more research is needed. 

Invitation to participate in the survey: 

The Colorado Avalanche Information Center, the Avalanche Research Program at Simon Fraser University, and the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research are researching how skiers, snowmobilers, snowshoers, ice climbers, and anyone else who travels in the backcountry interpret avalanche forecast information. Part of this research includes a specific survey to better understand how useful avalanche forecast information is for trip planning. 

Completing this survey will take approximately 20 minutes. Thank you for sharing your feedback to help us improve avalanche risk communication. 

Link to the survey: 

https://caic2024.avalancheresearch.ca/en/

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