Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard is HIGH above 4000 feet and Considerable below.  Significant snowfall along with strong winds at mid- upper elevations has created dangerous avalanche conditions.  Human triggered and natural avalanches are likely today 3-5 feet in depth.   Additional snowfall will continue to elevate the avalanche hazard.

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday.  The next forecast will be produced on 2/14, expect continued elevated hazard until then.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3

    All three forecast zones have received significant snowfall over the last 48 hours.  Totals are approaching 2 feet at the coast and 24-30+ at DOT with sustained strong winds reported through the night.  This new snow is being deposited on a layer of faceted snow created 2/6-8 that was observed widespread up to 5000' atop a hard bed surface.  This leaves us with all three ingredients for the avalanche recipe: Bed surface , Weak layer, Slab.   Observations from yesterday at low elevations of the Port showed signs of instability likely within the aforementioned layer of faceted snow.  All of the signs of instability were observed along with easy propagation in stability tests.  

    Dangerous avalanche conditions exist today.  Below 4000' careful route finding and very conservative terrain choices are recommended.  Above 4000' travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended where snowfall amounts are expected to be higher and strong winds will have created deeper storm loads that will be very likely to trigger up to 5 feet in depth.  Avalanches may be able to step down into deeper layers of the snowpack and create even larger more destructive avalanches.

    If you do decide to venture out there today be very particular in your terrain choices.  Avoid all exposure to terrain traps, avoid exposure to large slopes overhead as natural avalanches may occur today.  It is recommended to keep slope angles low and avoid overhead hazard.  Additional snowfall over the next 24 hours will continue to put stress on the snowpack and keep the hazard elevated.

    (2/8/2024)

    Faceted snow created during clear, calm, cold 2/6-8.  This snow may act as a weak layer as new snow accumulates

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Significant stress is currently being applied to the upper snowpack in the form of heavy snowfall and moderate to strong southerly wind at mid and upper elevations.  As our snowpack attempts to adjust to its new load dangerous avalanche conditions exist as the balance between strength and stress is becoming unbalanced.   

If you decide to venture out into the snow today be very particular with your route choices.  Keep angles low, avoid overhead exposure and do not travel above terrain traps.

The avalanche hazard may continue to increase today if moderate to heavy snowfall continues.  Even if precipitation comes to an end expect for the hazard to remain elevated.

 Glide cracks have been observed in all three forecast zones.  Avoid traveling beneath these as full depth avalanches can release unexpectedly.

Valdez season snowfall: 223  inches

Valdez February snowfall: 18 inches

Valdez height of snowpack: 72 inches

Thompson Pass snowfall data is currently unavailable

46 mile height of snowpack: 84 inches

Regions covered