Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche danger on Wednseday will be related to how much new snow has fallen and so will rise throughout the day.  Wind slab avalanches will be likely on Northeast and East slopes at treeline and above.  Once more snow has fallen by late afternoon, make conservative terrain choices if you are traveling on slopes that are potentially wind loaded (North and East).

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Stormy weather on Wednesday will be of the variety that we Central Oregonians are used to.  For the most part the accompanying Wind Slabs will be more typical of what we are used to seeing.  Winds will be from the Southwest and West, and the usual loading patterns will prevail.  One caveat is that surface hoar was observed on Tuesday.  If this surface hoar is preserved as snow begins to fall, avalanches could propogate farther than expected.

    Remember that wind deposited snow can accumulate 3-5 times as much as what snow has fallen in areas not affected by the wind.  With snowfall beginning in the early morning hours and continuing throughout the day, danger will increase proportionally with how much snow has fallen.

    Watch for blowing snow and signs of wind loading such as variable snow depth and consistency across aspects or through elevations.

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    We've had Cornice Fall as one of our avalanche characters for the past few days.  Cornices grew rapidly during last week's storm, and have still been reactive.  With new snow and wind in the forecast, Cornice Fall will continue to be possible.  Be particualarly careful with the limited visibility that we'll have tomorrow.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    We may see very shallow Storm Slabs on Wednesday.  These will occurr on the specific slopes where Tuesday's surface hoar is preserved as the snow starts falling.  These avalanches will not exceed the depth of new snow, and I hesitate to include them in the problem list except for the fact that riders may see unusually large propogation.  Be wary on slopes where terrain traps are present.

Avalanche Discussion

Surface hoar (see picture) was observed today.  In areas that this surface hoar remains intact (sheltered slopes) any incoming snow will be unstable.  There is the potential that Wind Slabs could propogate farther than we might expect.  Below treeline we may see very shallow storm slabs sliding on this layer of burried surface hoar. 

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