Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Hot weather continues on Monday, with wet snow avalanches driving the danger.  Observers noted another round of dangerous natural avalanches on Sunday.  You might find a short window in the morning where the snowpack remains supportive.  The danger will quickly rise as the sun begins to shine and temperatures rise.  Once you sink past your ankles, or worse, punch deeply into the snowpack, wet avalanches become a real problem.  Large, gouging loose avalanches will become probable, and the threat of deadly wet slabs will increase.  Get out early while the snow remains supportive and head for low-angle terrain once you encounter an unsupportive snowpack.  A small chance remains to trigger a dry slab on the highest elevation northerly slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet loose avalanches have occurred daily. These avalanches are the most concerning, where you sink deeply into wet snow. In these areas, a small wet loose avalanche can gouge through the whole snowpack, becoming powerful and large. In some cases, small wet loose avalanches also trigger bigger wet slab avalanches as they run downslope. Reduce your exposure to this avalanche problem by traveling early in steep terrain before surface crusts thaw. 

    A wet loose avalanche initiating from a thin rocky area in the Happy Chutes on Mt Emmons. 

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Recent wet slab avalanche activity has most often been triggered by smaller wet loose avalanches releasing higher up on the slope. These avalanches can also be human-triggered. The heavy weight of the wet snow will make skiing out of, or exiting the avalanche, nearly impossible. The most concerning terrain for this avalanche problem is where previously dry snowpacks are transitioning to wet conditions this week—especially in steeper, rockier slopes. Many south-facing slopes have already made this transition, while high-elevation northerly aspects are unlikely to produce enough meltwater today.  Wet avalanches are less likely early in the day while the snow surface remains frozen and meltwater production is limited. The hazard increases as the snowpack warms and free water moves deeper into the snowpack.

    A pair of fresh wet slab avalanches along Scarp Ridge failed sometime on Sunday.

    Photo: Evan Ross

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–2.5

    Old, hard slabs 2 to 3+ feet thick overlie buried weak layers. This avalanche problem has become isolated in distribution and is difficult to trigger. Without obvious warning signs, avalanches are most likely triggered where the slab is thinner and easier to impact the weak layer below.  Cornice falls can also act as triggers. You can reduce your risk by avoiding steep terrain with a thin or variable snowpack, such as rocky areas, rollovers, or places where wind has created uneven slab thickness. The southern half of the compass and slopes with consistently deep and uniform snow depths offer safer options.

    The last persistent slab avalanche in our forecast area released on Mt Whetstone, around March 11th, during an extreme wind event.

Avalanche Discussion

Abnormally hot weather continues to drive the avalanche danger.  On Monday, thin high clouds and stronger winds may help keep some snow surfaces cooler at the highest elevations.  For this reason, the danger rating dropped to MODERATE above treeline.  A reduction in water production should lead to a lower likelihood of an avalanche.  However, the threat of large wet avalanches remains a possibility.

On Sunday, forecasters noted a handful of new avalanches, including several nasty slides on alpine east slopes and northeast terrain near treeline.  Avalanches of this size and character would be difficult to survive.  Your best hope for managing the current problem list is to start very early and travel on the snowpack while it remains mostly frozen.  You may find this window is exceptionally short.  This observation from the Keble Pass area illustrates the fleeting nature of a frozen and supportive snowpack each morning.  

The current weather pattern continues for another week, with temperatures jumping to record levels Wednesday through Friday.  Expect the threat of wet avalanches to persist in the coming days.  Eventually, the hazard will subside as temperatures cool or the snowpack transitions to a more late-spring structure.

It has been a challenging winter.  Little snow, rain events, and now one of the earliest meltouts in memory.  Take a conservative mindset into the mountains today and carefully select terrain.  Temperatures will cool, and snow will likely return before this season is over.  Better conditions and safer opportunities will return.

Regions covered