Avalanche forecast

Flathead Range & Glacier NP

Flathead Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist, thanks to warm temperatures and a rain/snow mix. An avalanche watch is in effect due to the potential for worsening conditions. Slides that start as a small rollerball or a soggy slab of wind-drifted snow may trigger deeper, buried weak layers, causing very large, destructive avalanches. Stick to low-angle terrain or a dry environment, such as the inside of a building, for a safe and enjoyable day.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Rain on snow and/or above-freezing temperatures have increased the likelihood of natural and triggered avalanches. In the last month, we have seen buried weak layers become active with nearly every warming or loading event. Today should be no different, with unusually warm temperatures and strong winds transporting snow. Expect steep terrain facing northwest to northeast through southeast to produce another round of destructive avalanches.

    Being out of the way and disconnected from steep slopes above you is the best way to stay safe. Make a plan that gets more conservative as the day progresses. Leave yourself a route to get home that doesn’t put you in the line of fire from steep start zones well above you.

    (3/15/2026)

    A very large, destructive slab avalanche on Running Rabbit Mtn. The photo was taken from 3 miles away. The depth of the crown is very deep (est. 8ft +) 

    Photo: Michael Reavis

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Last weekend’s light, dry powder has became moist or wet, thanks to rain or warming temperatures. Steep slopes are now threatened by point-release avalanches that can entrain large amounts of snow. Though slow-moving, they can be difficult to escape. On shaded aspects, this loose snow problem could step down to deeper buried weak layers, resulting in very large avalanches. 

    Milking the last of the dry snow may not be worth the risk today. Avoid steep slopes with high-consequence terrain traps below you. Rollerballs, tree bombs, and soaked-through clothing are all signs that the conditions have turned for the worse. Head for a drier environment (car or home) if you encounter these changes this afternoon.

    (1/15/2026) Jan. 15th, 2026: Recent wet loose avalanche debris on the Sperry trail. ~5400' on a southerly aspect. Photo: Adam Clark

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Strong to extreme southwesterly winds at ridgelines and mountain tops have drifted snow onto leeward slopes, creating slabs of wind-stiffened snow. These could be sensitive to the weight of a human or machine. 

    If you manage to make your way through the warmed-up mank below 6,500 feet, expect to deal with wind-affected snow. Hollow, drummy-sounding snow or shooting cracks beneath you are signs of instability. Move to a more protected slope and take a photo for your friends to prove you found the last of the powder.

    This windrose shows the strong southwest winds that the Aeneas Ridge weather station is experiencing. 

Avalanche Discussion

An avalanche watch is in effect due to the potential of worsening conditions.

Rain. The dreaded weather pattern that all winter enthusiasts despise. It’s happened, and will continue happening throughout the day, increasing overnight and into Wednesday. Last week’s bountiful powder, which provided so much fantastic recreation, is now a curtain of sloppy cream cheese. Travel will be difficult, and the danger of being caught in an avalanche will increase as the week progresses. 

A myriad of hazards make any plan in the field tricky. Areas that remained drier and protected from the wind will harbor up to 2+ feet of unconsolidated snow. Plenty of snow for the rain- and warming-induced avalanches. A loose wet sluff may be relatively harmless by itself. However, it’s possible that one of these could trigger a weak layer buried 2 to 5+ feet below the surface. That’s not trivial. As is well-documented, the weak layer of surface hoar from the January drought tends to produce avalanches that break wide and run far.  

In avoiding the shaded aspects and their Persistent Sab problem, a person will encounter a variety of buried crusts on more solar-facing slopes. These crusts can provide a slick bed surface, offering opportunities for faster-moving slides that entrain copious amounts of snow. As the snowpack accumulates more precipitation tomorrow (Wednesday), this may become a critical interface if liquid water percolates to the crust. A potential wet slab problem looms, adding yet another factor to the already complex set of conditions.

A great way to stay engaged with snowpack while maintaining a higher level of safety ( and comfort) is to join Forecaster Mark Dundas this Thursday for the annual “Scoop on Spring Riding”. He will outline conditions and safety practices specific to spring riding. 6 PM at the Rendezvous in Columbia Falls, with ice cream provided by Sweet Peaks.    

Regions covered