Avalanche forecast

Silver Valley & Bitterroot Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Friday will be the 4th consecutive day of above freezing temperatures with periods of rain, and this run of unseasonably warm weather is creating dangerous conditions as meltwater moves through the snowpack and causes snow to lose cohesion. Evidence of loose snow avalanches are abundant in steep terrain on all aspects. Avoid traveling on slopes over 30 degrees and keep a wide distance around run out zones to account for dense wet debris running long distances.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Continued rain and above freezing temperatures are adding liquid water to the upper snowpack and weakening the upper snowpack. You can expect to find unsupportable snow surfaces and deep sinking into the wet snow both on foot or machine. Wet Loose avalanches are very likely on all steep slopes. While these slides may start small they can entrain more snow and grow in size. Consequences can be amplified with wet snow problems, avoid all avalanche terrain.

    Debris from a natural Wet Loose avalanche in a steep gully feature. Many slopes with a similar steep angle also had debris, and this will continue on Friday with more warm weather and light rainfall.  

    March 19, 2026.

    Photo: Izzy Davis

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Rain and continued above freezing temperatures are saturating and destabilizing the upper snowpack. As gravity pulls the liquid water deeper into the snowpack, its progress will be halted by several impermeable hard crust layers at various depths. At each of these layers, the water is likely to initially pool up and lubricate the underside of the overlying slab.

    On slopes steeper than 30 degrees, the additional weight and stress combined with the reduced friction at the interface, might be enough cause a failure. The deepest layers of concern are presently 3 to 5 feet deep in the snowpack. A failure at one of these interfaces would result in a large destructive avalanche. Uncertainty exists around forecasted rain totals and its impact on the snowpack. Avoid travel in avalanche terrain until conditions change and the snowpack has time to adjust.

    Annotated pit profile showing the progression of rain and meltwater into the upper snowpack. Water will continue to work down in the snowpack with another day of warm weather and more rain. 

    March 18, 2026.

    Photo: Jackson George

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    A cohesive slab 3 to 5 feet thick overlies two buried surface hoar layers. One surface hoar layer was buried at the end of January (1/28), and the other in mid-February around Valentine’s Day (2/14). The overlying slab has stiffened and settled due to wind, warm temperatures with current rain, and natural settlement within the snowpack.

    There has been no recent avalanche activity documented on these layers. However, persistent weak layers always carry uncertainty and these layers are currently being tested by warm temperatures and rain. If liquid water works its way down to lubricate one of these layers it may become reactive again, or alternatively a wet snow avalanche in the upper snowpack, or cornice fall, could provoke a large to very large destructive avalanche on one of these layers.

    Debris from an old avalanche that propagated widely and ran a long distance downhill. This avalanche likely failed on a persistent weak layer. 

    March 2, 2026.

    Photo: Izzy Davis

Avalanche Discussion

As of early Friday morning, many weather stations across the forecast area have been above freezing for over 70 to 90 hours. That means some places are now going on day 4 of no overnight freeze, plus the addition of rain. In that time, temperatures have crept up to the mid-40s Fahrenheit in the mountains. If you can think back to what the snowpack and landscape looked like exactly 7 days ago, it is a very different picture now.  

Wet snow problems are notoriously tricky to predict, and the continuous rain and warm temperatures have added to the complexity of trying to pin down the exact window when large Wet Slabs will cut loose. The snowpack structure is there, but the rain amounts each day haven’t seemed to deliver the quantity all at once needed to see a large natural cycle… but we are not out of the woods yet. Another 1 to 1.5 inches of rain will likely fall in the Selkirk, Cabinet, and Purcell Mountains by Saturday morning. Even though we have some degree of uncertainty around the timing of this particular avalanche problem, we have a high level of certainty in others.

As we anxiously await the first report of a large slab avalanche from this wet cycle, evidence of Wet Loose avalanches is abundant. We have transcended beyond the point of looking for the precursor signs that this problem is developing like rollerballs gaining in size and sinking into your boot top in wet snow. Instead, if you look at steep slopes on any aspect, particularly around gullies and cliffs, you are very likely to see natural sluffing and small Wet Loose avalanches that have already been released. Many of these avalanches will be small to start, but they carry a great potential to rapidly grow in size and run long distances as the dense and saturated debris moves downhill.

In many ways, it feels like the mountains are really falling apart. Cornices above tree line are starting to break off, the snowpack is rapidly losing depth and settling quickly, snow has melted out of all the trees, and evidence of Wet Loose avalanches exist on virtually all steep slopes. We are dealing with different types of problems than we were a week ago, but the conditions are still very dangerous.

Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. If you are set on celebrating the Spring Equinox today by spending time in the mountains, very diligently plan your route accordingly. Factor in the uncertainty that inherently comes with wet snow problems by giving a wide margin around steep slopes and remain very aware of overhead hazards. Avalanches can run long distances in their runout paths, and an otherwise small avalanche could be the trigger that initiates a much larger slab avalanche.

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