Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Avalanche danger is a spicy Considerable, with about a foot and a half of snow coming in early Friday night but tapering into the morning. Human-triggered avalanches are likely, and today's the day to avoid all steep slopes and big, complex avalanche terrain altogether. If you identify any red flags such as whumphing, cracking, natural avalanches, or if you have any doubt, avoid lower-angle terrain beneath steep slopes as well. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Well over a foot of snow is falling Friday night. A natural avalanche cycle could occur during peak instability, when we're getting the highest snowfall rates overnight. Avalanche danger may start out on high, but is expected to slowly improve throughout the day. New storm slab avalanches are likely to occur with a human trigger on all steep slopes, but they will probably be even more reactive on wind-loaded slopes. 

    Unlike what has been the case for much of this year, it's time for a mindset shift. If you trigger an avalanche, it will probably be large enough to bury and kill you, possibly failing 2-3 feet deep. Don't try to be sneaky and outsmart the avalanche problem ever, but especially today. Avoid all slopes greater than 30°.  If you have any doubt, avoid lower-angle terrain beneath steep slopes as well. Even lower elevations will have over a foot of new snow, and especially near the top of that elevation band you can expect to trigger avalanches over a foot deep. 

    If you notice any red flags, or bullseye clues, such as recent natural avalanches, cracking, whumphing, or are see additional wind loading, these are your strongest indicators to steer clear of avalanche terrain. Play it smart despite the pull of that cold, dry powder so you can make it home at the end of the day. 

    Example photo: A large storm slab avalanche in the Baker backcountry, which is similar to something you might trigger on Saturday. 

    Photo: Adam Ü

Avalanche Discussion

This may be the first exciting weekend powder day in a long time- definitely this year and maybe for the entire winter- but right now it's important to dial your terrain selection back and not have expectations of getting out into steep terrain in the backcountry. A weak layer may exist above the 12/30 crust, which will probably be buried 2-3 ft deep or more on Saturday. It will probably be even easier to trigger an avalanche if this layer is present. We suspect this layer exists on the northerly half at mid and upper elevations, but we don't have enough certainty to determine exactly where this layer is and isn't.  

We've been seeing stout crusts and moist, hard snow layers beneath the 12/30 crust. We don't expect avalanches to occur beneath the 12/30 crust. Since the crust's formation, we've received over 2 inches of water and there's about a foot of new snow over it, which is a bit more or less depending on elevations. You can expect at least double the amount of snow to be present by Saturday. 

If you make it out, have a great day on low-angle terrain. Take some photos of the new snow, avalanches, or anything else interesting, which you can easily submit with an observation on our website or app . Don't forget that beneath this new snow layer, especially if you're at lower elevations, there isn't much of an underlying snow base. Beware of open creeks, stumps, and rocks, as you can expect to encounter them sneakily hidden at lower elevations. 

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