Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

We're in for a windy, stormy day, and very dangerous avalanche conditions will be present in the mountains. This is a day to avoid all steep slopes and lower-angle terrain beneath steep slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3

    It's plain and simple: today's not the day to head out into steep backcountry terrain or lower-angle slopes beneath steep terrain. Danger will be higher at mid and upper elevations, where there's already a deeper snowpack, and large to very large avalanches are very likely with a human trigger. Intense snowfall and rain at lower elevations will fall Monday night, and temperatures will peak around midnight. We expect a natural avalanche cycle in the early morning hours. Snowfall intensity will back off a little during the day, but natural avalanche activity may continue. 

    At lower elevations, the existing snowpack is just barely getting thick enough to smoothly cover all irregularities, so rocks, gullies and trees are breaking up more of the snowpack. The snow depths are shallower down low as well.  Large human-triggered avalanches are still likely, so even though the danger is slightly lower, you can still expect to trigger an avalanche even at lower elevations, so follow the same travel advice. 

    Example photo: Large and very large slab avalanches, many with a wind influence, will likely fail overnight or during the day at mid and upper elevations on Tuesday.  Photo: Jeremy Allyn

Avalanche Discussion

We've been finding underlying weak snow layers beneath the large load of new snow we've gotten since New Year's. Check out the north-facing pit from Monday in the media. Avalanches during this storm may fail shallowly in storm slab layers, in wind slabs, or also as deep as the Solstice Crust or other nearby crusts, which might be 5ft deep in some places on Tuesday. If you were to get out on steep slopes, thinner areas are where a human might be able to trigger one of the deeper weak layers. This all points to the same thing- Tuesday is a day to travel extremely conservatively in the backcountry. 

We're forecasted to receive a little more than an inch of water overnight, equal to a bit over a foot of snow. Just under an inch of water is expected to come in during the day. This storm could total 2 feet of snow up high. Strong to extreme sustained wind speeds will make the day even more exciting.

The storm slab avalanche problem is all-encompassing for new snow avalanche problems. You can expect to see an uneven fresh new snow coating, with thicker, wind-loaded deposits in some spots and stripped areas in others. This will be much more evident as you gain elevation, although even at lower elevations you will probably be battling the wind as well. Deep snow immersion is a real concern as the snow deepens- beware of getting too close to trees!

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