Avalanche forecast

Central Sierra Nevada

Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Well above average temperatures today with strong March sunshine will create deep wet snow as daytime warming occurs.  Wet snow avalanches will become possible today.  Avoid steeper slopes as wet snow becomes deep and unsupportable. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Mostly clear overnight skies will provide a superficial refreeze of the snow surface through radiational cooling.  With overnight lows at most locations above 7000' in the mid 30's to mid 40's, any snow surface refreeze will be short lived.  Rapid warming is expected earlier today than yesterday with warmer temperatures forecasted and lighter winds.  Wet loose avalanches will be possible on all aspects today as our existing melt freeze crusts break down and become unsupportable and as transitional snow becomes wet, heavy, and loses strength.

    Roller balls, pinwheels, boot top wet snow, and recent wet loose avalanches will be signs of unstable wet snow development.  An early start will be critical today if you want to avoid deep wet snow or moving to lower angle terrain as rapid warming occurs can be another option to avoid wet loose avalanches.  Even small wet loose avalanches could have increased consequences above terrain traps such as trees, cliffs, rocks, and low snow areas.    

Avalanche Discussion

  • Observers reported small skier-triggered wet snow instabilities the last 2 days including; rollerballs, pinwheels, and small wet loose avalanches on all aspects. 
  • Snowmelt has intensified on all aspects and elevations throughout the forecast region.  Most SE-S-SW aspects have exposed bare ground in many areas limiting snow travel options on these aspects.
  • The old facet layer that was buried on Feb 14 still exists on some NW-N-NE aspects. Data and observations indicate that it is gaining strength.  In some isolated areas-melt water could weaken and potentially cause this weak layer to fail as a wet slab avalanche.  This remains an unlikely, but not impossible scenario with the limited distribution and scope of this weak layer.  

Regions covered