Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

In the past week, a handful of large slab avalanches have been skier-triggered or run naturally in wind-loaded terrain. Seek out softer, wind protected snow at lower elevations for better riding conditions and a much lower chance of triggering a slab avalanche.  You'll have to manage for more predictable point-release avalanches in very steep terrain if you find a shallow and sugary snowpack.   

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Slabs up to several feet thick are becoming increasingly isolated and difficult to trigger but remain a concern on some steep slopes facing west, north, east, or on heavily wind loaded southerly slopes.  You are unlikely to see signs of instability before triggering an avalanche that breaks on old weak layers.  Previously wind loaded terrain appears to be the most problematic, especially where slabs are thin near their margins, convexities, or rocky areas. You can reliably avoid the problem on slope angles less than 30 degrees without steeper slopes above you, and most wind-protected terrain lacks the problem.  

    This persistent slab in the Anthracites appears to be triggered by a rider on 1/18/2025. Note how the slab released on the lee side of a tree fence and convex roller that had been previously cross-loaded.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Prolonged periods of blowing snow last week formed relatively shallow but stiff wind slabs favoring easterly and southerly facing slopes. Slabs are most common in crossloaded gullies, below leeward ridgelines, or behind ribs or tree fences in the terrain.  Consider slab size and consequences before crossing a smooth, hard, dense drift.  You can easily avoid this problem by traveling in wind protected or wind scoured terrain. 

    This wind slab was intentionally triggered by a ski cut in the Irwin Area on Tuesday, 1/21.

Avalanche Discussion

The snowpack is coming off a holiday season bender and embracing Dry January to recover from its reckless (and overly talkative) behavior.   As the likelihood needle for persistent slabs continues moving down, there are more slopes where we can confidently travel in steep terrain, but still plenty of others where it is more of a guessing game with a crummy outcome if you draw the joker in the deck.  

  • Wind-sheltered terrain:  The Holiday slab is softer, thinner, and has decayed significantly, making for very low odds of triggering a slab avalanche.  You can use stability tests or feel the snowpack for a loss of cohesion to gain further confidence.  As you move into steeper terrain, the snowpack is typically even shallower, and on some slopes, you'll be able to trigger facet sluffs that start small and slow but pick up steam and mass in bigger terrain.  Use defensive or off-fall-line riding and good communication to manage that problem, or choose mellower slope angles.
  • Wind-drifted terrain: Most commonly near and above treeline, but also on open below treeline slopes from recent down-valley winds (like the East Bowl slide).  The most recent generation of wind slabs is fairly easy to recognize and avoid: Look for stiff, smooth, rounded deposits in concave features or below ridges. Some of those slabs formed over persistent weak layers so they are taking longer than usual to heal.  The thicker persistent slab problem is a lower likelihood threat, but it can be difficult to identify problematic slopes or terrain features. Slopes with recent wind loading (as opposed to erosion) are most worrisome.  In those areas, you can reduce your risk by traveling where slopes are consistently deep and uniform, though there's a degree of uncertainty in that strategy, as illustrated by this video. 

Check out our latest weekly summary for more insight into our snowpack structure and avalanche patterns.

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