Avalanche Forecast

A series of Pacific storms will take aim at the coastal regions bringing strong winds, warmer temperatures and heavy precipitation. The Interior interior will receive lighter amounts of precipitation (10-20 cm) on Thursday. Freezing levels will rise to near or slightly above 1600 m across the Kootenay Boundary, Lizard and South Rockies region. Friday will be slightly cooler and dryer before the next system reaches us on Saturday bringing snow amounts 10-25 cm, strong SW winds and rising freezing levels to 1800 m.

No new avalanches have been reported. This may speak to the lack of observations rather than actual conditions. With new snow and strong winds forecast the avalanche danger will likely be on the rise. I'd suspect loose dry avalanches especially from steeper terrain, and storm slab developments at upper elevations.

Up to 10 cm of new low density snow has buried old snow surfaces which comprise of stubborn wind slabs, crusts well defined at upper elevations especially on southerly aspects, loose faceted snow and surface hoar in sheltered areas. The new snow likely has a poor bond to the old snow. In some parts of the region a thick hard crust is reported to exist between 15 and 25cm below the surface. For the time being, this hard crust is likely adding significant strength to the snowpack. That said, the combination of facets and surface hoar overlying a hard crust could become a reactive weak layer when it gets buried by new snow, and new snow it’s on its way. There is also a thick crust from early-November in the middle of the snowpack. The limited reports we have received suggest that this crust is well bonded but you should investigate the snowpack in your local area before committing yourself to avalanche terrain.