Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Although overall danger is low, steep, sunlit slopes may still shed small wet loose avalanches, while shaded slopes at higher elevations could harbor a small and stubborn wind-drifted pocket where a human could trigger an avalanche. Be mindful of the consequences of even a small slide in big terrain. Many surfaces are firm and frozen, so consider carrying sharp gear to lessen the risk of a long sliding fall.

Avalanche Discussion

Cool temperatures and a bit of breeze kept wet avalanche issues at bay on Thursday across the zone. Slopes that have seen the sun will have a surface crust on Friday. On shaded and sheltered slopes, you'll find between 1-9 inches over a stout crust, depending on elevation and location in the zone. Isolated wind-loaded pockets could be deeper. Ski or boot crampons and ice axes could be advantageous, or even mandatory on Friday, depending on your tour plan. Don't underestimate the risk of a long sliding fall, especially on exposed frozen slopes on the volcanoes. Any potential avalanches should only involve new snow above said crust, and thus, they should be small. 

A good overnight freeze, continued seasonal temperatures, and increasing cloud cover in the afternoon should help to limit any wet avalanche activity on Friday, but pay attention to the slopes you are on as well as those above you. On sun-affected slopes, a stout surface crust will need to break down before any avalanche potential takes root. While that may not happen at all, switch to a lower angle or shaded slope if you see rollerballs, pinwheels, or sink in past your boot tops into wet snow. 

The recent storm didn't deliver much in terms of new snow, winds haven't been too impressive, and any wind slabs that did form are a few days old, stubborn, and small. The exception may be on the volcanoes or in other outlier terrain at the highest elevations. Rangers on Mt. Rainier felt a localized collapse and had a 10' crack propagate out from their ski tips at 8200' on Thursday. Crystal Pro Patrol didn't have any inbounds issues with wind slabs, but did note a recent natural in steep and complex terrain at Cayuse Pass. All signs point to this problem being unlikely, but not impossible. If you were to still find an isolated wind slab on Friday, it would probably be above 5000ft on a steep, shaded, confined, and complex slope. Tops of gullies/chutes and below steep ridge lines are prime locations. Look for textured snow and pillow-like drifts to indicate where a potential wind slab might be and consider the consequences of a small slide in exposed terrain.

It may be dust on crust, but the surface snow on shaded aspects is still soft and fun! If you make it into the backcountry, please share with us what you find by submitting an observation HERE or on the Avy app.

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