Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Due to limited field observations

Synopsis: A frontal system will move through southern BC on Tuesday bringing moderate snow, very strong winds, and rising freezing levels. Unsettled and cooler conditions are expected in the wake of this system.  Tuesday: Moderate snow – 15-20 cm; the freezing level could jump to 1600-1800 m; winds are very strong from the southwest. Wednesday and Thursday: Cloudy with flurries; the freezing level lowers to 600-800 m. 

Several natural and skier triggered slab avalanches up to size 2 were reported throughout the region on the weekend. Most of these avalanches were 40-50cm deep and involved the recent storm snow. Check out the Incident Report database for a couple recent submissions. I expect much of the same for Tuesday with forecast snow, strong winds, and warming.

Up to 70 cm of moist storm snow has fallen in the past several days. This snowfall was accompanied by generally moderate south-southwest winds, forming wind slabs in exposed leeward terrain. Below the storm snow is a layer of surface hoar or a thin crust. Recent snowpack tests give consistent easy results on this layer.In the mid snowpack, there may be a thin buried surface hoar layer between 80 and 100cm deep. At the base of the snowpack sits the early November rain crust. This layer seems most likely to be found in deeper snowpack areas at higher elevations. These layers have been unreactive in recent days, but may have the potential to 'wake-up' with continued loading and forecast warming.In general, snowpack data is sparse in this region and significant variations likely exist from one drainage to another. In short, digging down and making your own observations will be critical to safe slope selection. Any observations from the field are welcome at [email protected].