Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist at all elevations as over 3 feet of snow has fallen with W/SW winds expected to pick up today and additional snow in the forecast. You can trigger an avalanche in the new storm snow whether that's a storm slab or loose dry snow avalanche that can run long distances on crusts.  Any avalanche triggered on the surface could be dangerous on its own but may step down into deeper buried weak layers. Facets that formed around crusts during the high-pressure periods at the end of February and early March were in the top meter of the snowpack before this latest round of snow. Deeper down in the snowpack, depth hoar and facets near the ground may become more reactive in shallow snowpacks as we've seen with each significant loading event this year.  Avoid slopes over 30 degrees today watching for obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and collapsing.     

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Over 3 feet of snow has fallen in the last two days, and an additional couple of inches is expected during the day today. It was a mixed bag between storm slabs and loose dry snow avalanches that avalanche control teams were triggering yesterday, but I'll leave it under the storm slab character as it's a new snow avalanche concern. New storm snow instabilities were running on the old snow/new snow interface that consisted of crusts that formed during the warm dry period proceeding this storm and near surface facets on northerly and shady aspects as well as a graupel layer that formed during Sunday's portion of the storm. Whether it was storm slabs or loose dry snow avalanches, they were able to run long distances and entrain a lot of snow, especially on the slick crusts at the old snow interface. West winds will be picking up today and with an abundance of snow available to transport, expect snow to easily drift into stiffer and thicker slabs, especially at upper elevations on the leeward sides of ridgelines.    

    Avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees, which will be difficult as these types of deep conditions tend to lead you into steeper terrain just to make a turn.  An avalanche in the new snow would be dangerous on its own, but could also step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

     

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    3 + feet of snow and close to 4"  of SWE fell over the last two days. This rapid loading is providing a big test to weak layers buried in the top meter of the snowpack before this last storm. Near-surface facets on shadier aspects and faceted crusts on sunnier aspects that formed during late February and early March dry periods will struggle to handle this rapid loading. Deeper down in the snowpack, depth hoar and the early January drought facet layers have been lying dormant for the last month but continue to remain present and reactive in snowpits where the snowpack was shallow before this latest round of snow. We've seen these deeper buried layers become more reactive with every significant storm we've had this year. Visibility hasn't been great and travel has been difficult so there is a bit of uncertainty with how these weak layers have fared so far.  

     

     

    Faceted crusts and buried near surface facets that formed during the dry periods at the end of February and early March will be the persistent weak layers of concern and are facing a significant test as we've received 4" of SWE so far with this storm.

    Photo: Charlie Harrison (3/14/2024)

Avalanche Discussion

Is there such a thing as too much snow? There aren't too many storms we get here in the desert southwest where you pick up 3 + feet of snow in a couple of days, but this system came in with the right dynamics and brought some much-needed moisture for our mountains as we head into spring. SWE measurements are an impressive 3.7 to 4 inches and we still may pick up a couple of more inches of snow today. It's deep out there and you're certainly not going to get anywhere quickly.  To make any semblance of a turn instead of skinning downhill it will force you into sustained steep terrain otherwise it'll just turn into deep wallowing.  Visibility hasn't been great the last couple of days, but reports from explosive control teams were of easy-to-initiate storm slabs or long-running loose snow avalanches either on crusts or a graupel layer that formed during Sunday's portion of the storm.  Some steep slopes at all elevations relieved themselves naturally, but we haven't seen or had reports of avalanches stepping down into deeper weak layers.  Mostly cloudy skies today will help keep the threat of loose wet snow avalanches at bay, but if the sun does make an appearance it won't take much time before the snow surface starts to warm up.  This will become more of an issue tomorrow with warming temperatures and clear skies.  Roof avalanches may also be a concern, so be cautious of your surroundings around buildings.   

The first part of the storm on Sunday came in with wind, with Monday's portion having calm to light winds out of the west. Today the winds look to pick up out of the W/SW as another pulse of moisture brings some light snowfall mid-morning..  With an abundance of snow available to transport, expect slabs to continue to thicken and stiffen, especially at upper elevations on the leeward sides or ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. 

There's less certainty when it comes to our persistent slab problem. Faceted crusts and buried near surface facets from our late February and early March dry periods continue to remain in the top meter of the snowpack before this latest round of snow. This is the first significant loading event since these layers formed, and it will be interesting to see how these layers are able to handle this big test. Thick stout crusts on solar aspects that formed during the warm period before this storm may be able to hold more weight, but 4" of water is a big test and should at least stress these layers. Avalanches may not fail naturally on these layers but may take you triggering it, or a smaller avalanche within the storm snow to get these layers to fail. 

Deeper down in the snowpack depth hoar and basal facets continue to remain present in shallow snowpacks (< 1.5m) and have mostly been lying dormant during the prolonged periods of high pressure.  With each significant storm this year we've seen these layers become more reactive which includes northerly aspects below treeline where the snowpack continues to remain shallow. The last real significant loading event happened at the end of February when we had a large avalanche that failed near the ground. 

If you are getting out, realize that it's deep and travel is going to be slogging and slow going.  Outside of traveling, making any turns in this deep powder will put you into avalanche terrain so plan accordingly on your and your party's expectations for the day. A warm and dry period is expected from Wednesday into Sunday where temperatures will be climbing into the upper 40's.  Unfortunately, our powder won't last long and will be heading into wet snow avalanche concerns in the coming days.   If you're wanting to maximize your powder turns, my recommendation would be to head inbounds today   

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