Avalanche forecast

Bitterroot

West Central Montana Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely today in wet snow on solar aspects. If you find yourself in wet, unsupportable snow, or see large rollerballs and point releases, stay out of avalanche terrain.

Poor snowpack structure with persistent slab potential remains in dry snow on northern aspects. You are unlikely to see red flags like cracking or collapsing before an avalanche occurs in these areas. If you find weak, sugary snow with a slab above, avoid the problem by sticking to slopes under 30 degrees in slope angle.

 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet snow avalanches are very likely today on sun-affected slopes. Temperatures today have the potential to reach the low 40s at upper elevation. Warm temperatures, combined with the strong spring sun, will cause the snowpack to rapidly lose strength. Overnight, clear skies helped with a refreeze, but this refreeze is likely superficial and will break down rapidly.

    The typical progression of wet loose avalanches involves rollerballs, and small point releases, leading to larger wet loose avalanches. If you encounter rollerballs or small wet loose avalanches, expect larger ones to follow.

    We are trending towards conditions where wet slab avalanches are possible across the forecast area. In isolated terrain today, wet loose avalanches have the potential to break out into a slab as they move down the slope. If you see this, be especially cautious around avalanche terrain.

    When dealing with wet snow:

    - Making conservative terrain choices when dealing with a warm, wet snowpack is essential.

    - Be alert for rapidly changing conditions. Morning is often faster and safer, so plan your day so you are out of avalanche terrain before the snow becomes wet and weak.

    - Aspect is important. Generally, southeast slopes warm and destabilize first, followed by the south and then the west.

    - Changes can occur quickly, sometimes as fast as minutes, but definitely within an hour

    - Avoid steep sun affected slopes with wet snow

    - Warm temperatures and sun can cause cornices to fail naturally, so be cautious of overhead cornice hazards

    - In the evening, even if temperatures are cool, it can take hours for the heat to escape the snowpack. Avalanche danger can remain elevated into the evening.

    (3/15/2024)

    A slightly closer look at some of the numerous wet loose avalanches on south and southeast aspects starting at upper elevations.

    Photo: Payton Schiff

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    A poor snowpack structure with facets surrounding a crust in the middle of the snowpack still lingers. This problem has been unreactive and had not produced avalanches in weeks, until this week when a group of skiers triggered a persistent slab avalanche in the southern Bitterroot in an area where the snow above the crust is especially weak.

    Today, you are unlikely to trigger a persistent slab avalanche, except on specific slopes where this problem is more developed. You will most likely trigger a persistent slab avalanche on convexities, rollovers, or near rock bands. Before triggering, you will unlikely see obvious signs of instability, such as cracking and collapsing.

    Identify this problem by digging in the snowpack. Look for a crust buried by 2-4 feet of snow with a thin layer of weak snow above or below the crust. If you find this, use slope angle to avoid the problem by sticking to slopes under 30 degrees in slope angle. If you choose to ride in terrain with this persistent weak layer, reduce exposure by choosing a smooth planar slope free of terrain traps or trees in the runout.

    (3/14/2024)

    Poor snowpack structure remains at upper elevations. Dig 2-4 ft down to find facets above a stout crust.

    Photo: Payton Schiff

Avalanche Discussion

Today will be a beautiful warm spring day in the mountains but expect the snow to rapidly lose strength and cause wet snow avalanches.

Wet snow problems can be divided into two categories.

1. Melt/freeze cycle    2. All melt/ no freeze

Today, we are still in the melt/freeze cycle, especially at upper elevation. Mid and low elevations are moving toward an all melt/no freeze period for the next few days. For a deeper dive into the world of wet snow, check out this avalanche encyclopedia post.

An avalanche fatality occurred on Tuesday, March 12th, in the southern Bitterroot. You can view the preliminary accident report here. A full report will be issued within the next 30 days. Our deepest condolences go out to the family, friends, and community affected by this tragic event.

Please let us know what you're seeing out in the backcountry by submitting an observation.

Ski and ride safe.

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