Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Many slopes have a loose, cohesionless snowpack that is safe from avalanches, except for minor sluffing.  Isolated slab instabilities linger on steep slopes that previously received significant wind loading: be cautious in high-consequence terrain where you find thicker, stiffer snow.   

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Snowfall and wind drifting in early December formed slabs up to a couple feet thick over facets near the ground.  These weak layers are most widespread on the northern half of the compass and exist as collapsible crusts on some high-elevation southeast slopes.  In the Southeast Mountains, most slabs have decayed, and the threat lingers on a few heavily drifted slopes near and above treeline.  Stay alert for isolated instabilities and consider avoiding old stiff drifts above high-consequence terrain.  Most lingering instabilities are expected to be small (D1-D1.5), with potential for a larger outlier on the largest, most wind-drifted slopes.  

    A skier triggered a persistent slab avalanche on Sunday, 12/14.  This avalanche occurred in the Northwest Mountain forecast area. 

Avalanche Discussion

The most recent avalanche cycle occurred on December 6th and 7th. Since then, beginning on December 8th, three slab avalanches have been documented. Early observations following that cycle reported obvious signs of instability, including widespread cracking and shooting cracks. As the days progressed, observers have noted that signs of instability became increasingly isolated and localized. These are some highlights showing the slowly decreasing likelihood of the persistent slab avalanche problem.

The majority of these observations have come from the Northwest Mountain forecast area. While over in the Southeast Mountain forecast area, there have been no recent avalanche observations, and the avalanche danger has already trended to LOW. More people have headed towards the Ruby Range, where there is more snow to ski and ride, while in the area around Crested Butte and generally in the Southeast Mountain forecast area, the snowpack is thinner and often lacks enough snow for a slab avalanche problem. 

With the windstorm coming up tonight, we'll need to keep track of any new avalanche problems that may form. Currently, some loose facets could blow around, but otherwise, there isn't any snow available for transport. If we get some new snow tonight, that would become the snow available for transport into a new wind slab avalanche problem. 

Upcoming Events:

  • Fireside Chat: Join us at the Daily Dose on Friday December 19th 5-7 pm to hear Matt Steen discuss professional decision making in avalanche terrain. Helicopter Skiing Lead guide manages avalanche terrain in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado. Come hear his interesting perspective.
  • Trailhead Day: We will also be at the Washington Gulch trailhead for our first Trailhead Day this Saturday from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m.

Programs like the Fireside Chat Series and Trailhead Days are made possible through funding from MetRec, STOR and the National Forest Foundation

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