Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Fast-moving loose avalanches that run long distances could push you around and cause consequential falls. These slides may be small and more predictable, but don't let your guard down in steep terrain with trees, rocks, or cliffs below. If you observe fast-moving sluffs or rollerballs, consider more moderate slope angles. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Natural and triggered fast-moving dry loose avalanches running on melt-freeze crusts will be your primary concern on Tuesday. These avalanches initiate from a single point, such as snow shedding from rocks and trees, or from backcountry travelers. While they may be small and somewhat predictable, you could trigger one onto your partners below and push them into gullies, trees, or rocks. Recent reports indicate that these slides are entraining all the recent snow and running long distances. On sunny slopes, you may see wet loose avalanches instead of dry. Practice good terrain management, stop out of the runouts in steep terrain, and back off consequential terrain objectives if you observe long-running sluffs or rollerballs. 

    Isolated, small wind slabs at upper elevations are less likely to be a concern. But look for cracking in wind-textured snow as a sign to avoid steep terrain features such as convexities or confined chutes and gullies. 

    (3/20/2025)

    Small dry loose avalanches initiating from steep cliff bands.

    Photo: Katie Warren

Avalanche Discussion

A storm system will keep the temperatures quite cold, but unfortunately, it's not accompanied by much moisture. Washington Pass might squeeze out 1-3" of snow with the high snow-to-water ratios. After overnight snow, the skies may clear by midday on Tuesday. 

Observers over the weekend reported isolated, small wind slabs and more widespread dry loose avalanches. Sunday's sunshine moistened snow surfaces and formed a thin melt-freeze crust, potentially helping to limit loose avalanche activity on steep sunny slopes. Surfaces on shady slopes have soft, dry snow.

Avalanche concerns are currently fairly isolated. But the primary focus going forward is the poor bond at the new/old snow interface (2/13). The fresh snow fell on weak faceted grains and surface hoar, now buried 4-6" deep.  Overall, the upper snowpack has poor structure, consisting of a complex mix of weak snow and crusts. The February 7th crust was 6-8" below the surface, and the January 28th crust is below that, at a total depth of 10-16."  Farther east, in the Chewuch area, the snowpack is even more shallow and weak. Crusts have become faceted on shady aspects, with the upper 2/7 crust barely discernible in some northerly terrain.

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