Northern New Mexico

You can trigger a persistent slab avalanche near and above treeline where recently formed slabs rest on top of widespread weak layers in the overall shallow snowpack. These slabs will feel stiffer from yesterday's wind and be found mainly on northerly and east aspects on the leeward sides of ridgelines. Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses as these are indications you've found unstable snow. Sticking to lower angle terrain that is more windsheltered will provide safer riding options. 

Avalanche conditions will be increasing through the rest of the week as snow and strong winds move into our area. 

Yesterday, temperatures climbed into the mid 40's and even touched above freezing along the highest peaks. Today will be another warm day, but moderate to strong winds will help keep the snow surface cool, and decided to drop loose wet snow avalanches from the problem list. Still be on the lookout for signs of wet snow on the surface, like pinwheels and rollerballs at lower elevations in more wind-sheltered terrain. 

The main concern will be triggering a persistent slab avalanche as recent snow (5-7 inches) and wind built slabs that rest on top of a very weak, shallow, and faceted snowpack. This will mainly be confined to steep slopes near and above treeline as winds yesterday morning were transporting snow and helping stiffen slabs. Yesterday's warm sunny day will help make these slabs more stubborn to trigger, but the underlying snowpack is so weak with persistent weak layers widespread across slopes that all it will take is finding the right slab to trigger an avalanche right now. 

Looking ahead, this snowpack is going to struggle to handle continued loading. For the first time all season, we're gonna go into a series of storms without heading into a prolonged period of high pressure. During these periods of high pressure, storm snow was quickly faceting, and we'd lose the slab. This time, the slab from the Valentine's Day storm is going to remain and continue to build. With added weight and continued slab development, we'll likely hit a tipping point on these fragile weak layers. 

This snowpit really shows the variety of persistent weak layers that you can find in our shallow and "weak" snowpack. They all stem from prolonged periods of high pressure (drought periods) that have formed facets or depth hoar. The first storm wasn't overly impressive, and the upper weak layers are what we're more concerned about. With very strong winds and more snow in the forecast after the holiday weekend, we suspect even deeper weak layers will struggle to handle  the added weight.  (2/14/2026) Photo: Andy Bond

All attention will quickly turn to a series of potent storms bringing very strong winds and periods of intense snowfall. These storms won't bring the blockbuster snow totals that California or even Colorado is about to see, but the latest NWS blend has over a foot of snow by Saturday. This, combined with very strong winds, will bring changing and increasing avalanche danger in the coming days. We will be doing daily avalanche forecasts through the week, so check back in for the latest conditions.