Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Light snowfall starts to wane on Monday, but the chance to trigger a large, dangerous avalanche remains. Southerly-facing slopes with a thicker, more supportive crust below the recent snowfall provide safer options for navigating buried weaker layers that linger on the majority of slopes at mid and upper elevations. Recognize that the current slab-weak layer combination may provide no feedback before the slope avalanches, so dig down to investigate or simply choose lower-angle slopes not connected to steeper overhead hazards.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Two to six inches of wet snow and around half an inch of Snow Water Equivalent has added more stress to buried surface hoar and facets below a crust. The new load is not expected to contribute to an uptick in natural avalanche activity, but it could be enough to make human triggering a bit easier than the day prior. These weak layers are particularly problematic because they may not produce obvious warning signs, such as cracking or collapsing, before you trigger an avalanche. 

    Recent snowpack tests have repeatedly provided us with easy propagation results across large columns, highlighting the lingering reactivity in these weak layers and the dangerous consequences that may ensue. If a slide breaks as widespread across the terrain as these grains exist, those slides will be very difficult to escape. The biggest challenge of the Persistent Slab avalanche problem is managing the uncertainty around the known unknowns. Be mindful of your terrain choices and favor slopes around 30 degrees without steeper hazards directly above.

    February 3rd, 2026

    An annoted pit profile showing our current persistent slab structure in the Selkirk Mountains. Multiple snowpack tests provided us with unstable results. The primary culprit is a layer of buried surface hoar one foot below the surface.

    Photo: Jackson George

Avalanche Discussion

Steady to light mountain snowfall within the last 48 hours has been a welcome change, as many snow surfaces were in desperate need of a refresh in terms of the riding quality. The unfortunate news is that we continue to be burdened by buried weak layers below, making the prospect of recreating on steeper slopes a worrisome endeavor. The trouble with our current pattern is that since the weak layers were initially buried on January 28th, we have generally received light and steady incremental loads. This has helped preserve the weak layers,  all while allowing the slabs to thicken, steadily increasing the potential size and consequence of avalanches with each passing storm.When faced with remarkably widespread or fragile weak layers, of which ours can be characterized as both right now, avalanche professionals hope for a “crush or flush” scenario to unfold. Meaning a substantial storm moves through to cause rapid settlement and deeply buries the weak layer. This type of storm can also test the weak layer resulting in a widespread “flush” in the form of a natural avalanche cycle. When this happens, it can effectively help to give us a clean slate in some or many avalanche start zones. I hate to say it, but we’ve essentially had the opposite scenario unfold lately. Recent storms have been even-keeled with gradual and modest snowfall accumulations, and we have observed very few natural avalanches releasing on the January 28th weak layers.

So here we are, in the middle of February with a fairly text book, tell-tale “spicy moderate” forecast for you. With each passing day, our field teams continue to easily find buried surface hoar one to two feet below the surface, and that weak layer continues to produce worrisome, propagating results in our snowpack tests. Feedback at the surface has been in short supply, so the best tool for investigating the problem right now is digging down. If you find the Jan 28 weak layer on the slopes where you are recreating, and you find that the overlying slab is one foot or greater, you have found a place that steep slopes could produce large dangerous avalanches. You can reduce your risk, by choosing lower angled terrain. We might be dealing with this problem for weeks to come, so now is a perfect time to develop your strategies for navigating it.

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