Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

We are now at 9 days since our last refresh of new snow. Northwesterly winds have since redistributed that snow into stiff drifts on the lee sides of terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions exist on these specific terrain features at mid and upper elevations. On Saturday, a couple of slab avalanches were human-triggered in Upper Cement Creek and one to the north of our area near Aspen. On northerly-facing wind-sheltered slopes, there is still some nice soft powder to ride. In those wind-sheltered areas, your primary avalanche problem is small, dry loose avalanches on steep terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Persistent slab avalanche concerns mostly involve slabs of drifted snow that formed over the facets and faceted crusts from the January drought.  These slabs, typically less than 2 feet thick, are hard and stubborn to trigger. Often requiring heavier loads, or light loads in just the right location to trigger. There is isolated potential for a slab failing in the upper snowpack to step down and trigger a deeper, harder avalanche near the ground. Searching for wind-eroded and soft wind-dappled snow will help reduce your exposure to this avalanche problem, while the best way to avoid it is by riding in wind-sheltered areas. 

    A hard, persistent slab that was human-triggered in Upper Cement Creek on Saturday. This slab formed on the lee side of the ridgeline. 

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    The upper snowpack has lost strength and cohesion, leading to sluff on steep slopes. This small avalanche problem exists in wind-sheltered, northerly-facing terrain. Most of these triggered avalanches will be relatively harmless, but where they run through sustained steep terrain, they can become larger in size and push you into more hazardous terrain features, such as trees, or pile deeply in terrain traps. 

    Small dry loose avalanches above Peanut Lake RD. 

Avalanche Discussion

The best riding and softest powder can be found on northerly facing wind-sheltered terrain. Given the reduced avalanche hazard here, this is a good time to get out and enjoy the backcountry in those areas. Small dry loose avalanches are starting to creep into the problem list as the snowpack loses strength in these wind-sheltered areas. These sluffs are the most common in the SE Mountain forecast area, where the snowpack is thinner. In the NW Mountain forecast area, the upper snowpack is still holding some cohesion, helping to hold back these sluffs. Exceptions exist in the NW Mountain forecast where the snowpack is below average in depth, like on an old avalanche bed surface. There, small sluffs will be more common, and conditions will be similar to the SE Mountain forecast area.

The persistent slab avalanche problem was primarily formed during a northwesterly wind event on Sunday, 1/25. The sensitivity of this avalanche problem has greatly decreased since. New sun crusts are forming on top of the snowpack in some of the most suspect terrain for this avalanche problem. As those crusts grow, they will further decrease the chance for a triggered avalanche. The persistent slab avalanche distribution rose was trimmed to the few remaining aspects where the avalanche problem is most commonly encountered. Cross-loaded drifts on west-to-north-facing slopes are very isolated and rare. Those windward aspects typically have hard wind crusts or wind boards, with only a few wind-exposed areas still holding onto soft wind-dappled power.

Regions covered