Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

For Valentines Day, if you find storm snow totals reaching about six inches or more, shift your travel to lower-angle slopes. Weak layers that formed at and near the surface in recent days could lead to more avalanche activity than expected, especially on shady slopes and in areas with thicker, wind-drifted features. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Areas that hold about 6 inches of snow or more could avalanche with a human trigger. Expect more reactivity in thicker, wind-loaded areas. Search for bullseye clues like long, shooting crack or recent avalanches, as obvious signs to avoid steep terrain. When in doubt, stick to lower angle slopes. 

    Shady slopes may be more reactive if weak layers linger in or on the old snow surface, but we don’t yet know how widespread this problem is. Getting away with one slope doesn’t mean the next is safe.

    Avoid high-consequence terrain: steep slopes connected to gullies, cliffs, trees, or rock fields that could amplify the effects of getting caught in an avalanche. 

    Example photo: You can easily trigger avalanches that could surprise you by spanning further than expected on Saturday. 

    Photo: Irene Henninger

Avalanche Discussion

I was at two different spots in the West Central zone on Tuesday and Friday, and in both areas, I found weak snow forming in and on top of the low density snow layer that fell on 2/9. Surface hoar was most prevalent on open flat north and east slopes at lower elevations around 3500ft Instead of a heavy storm like 2 ft of wet snow with clear failures that wipe out our concerns, we’re in a gray zone where avalanche behavior will be uncertain as we continue with these smaller loads of snow.

Small, dry, loose avalanches are possible in the new low-density snow. There may be a few afternoon sun breaks, further initiating any loose avalanches. The old snow layer, especially if hard at the surface like on south-facing slopes, could provide a good sliding surface in an avalanche. Beware of hard, bumpy features beneath the new snow layer. 

We expect around 6 inch storm totals in the zone, but total numbers - and subsequent avalanche danger- may vary depending on where you are in the zone. Near the top of the lower elevation band, there may be smooth, continuous old snow layers that avalanches could run on, especially on shady aspects, whereas south-facing slopes and lower elevations may just have a fresh coating of snow over the ground with minimal avalanche concern. 

Regions covered