Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

A rapid warmup is expected to destabilize the snowpack, resulting in dangerous conditions and natural avalanches on Thursday. Some avalanches could run on a crust 1-3ft deep and become large at upper elevations. Get a very early start, finish early, and plan your tour to avoid slopes well before they begin warming up.

 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Skyrocketing temperatures should soften and destabilize the snowpack on Thursday. Natural avalanches may occur once the daytime begins to warm up. Slides may become large in larger terrain features at upper elevations. Many slopes below treeline don't hold enough new snow for large avalanches, but if you find over a foot of recent snow, slides may become large. Choose terrain with plenty of options that allow you to easily avoid slopes steeper than 35 degrees, if necessary. Also, start and finish your tour early if you do go out.

    Wet avalanches should start on east aspects in the morning and follow the compass clockwise, around to south and then west aspects later in the day. Signs of warming are moist, sticky surfaces and moist snow falling out of the trees. Indicators that wet loose avalanches could occur include rollerballs and other wet avalanches. If you see or hear these, move to more shaded or northerly aspects or slopes less than 35 degrees. Plan your day to stay clear of runout zones and avoid overhead avalanche hazard from slopes once they begin to warm up.

    Recent wet loose avalanche activity after a sunny day post-storm in the East Central zone.

    Photo: Matt Primomo

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    There's lots of wind-affected snow out there on open, exposed slopes. Slabs may become more cohesive and may fail more easily with warming temperatures and sun on Thursday. With such a rapid warmup and 1-3ft of dry snow over a crust, slabs may take on more of a wet slab characteristic later in the day. These could be in areas that were previously all dry wind slabs.

    It'll be best to avoid steep slopes once the snow begins to become wet and sticky on Thursday, whether they are wind textured or not. Stay out from under cornices and avoid walking on or near them. 

Avalanche Discussion

A large, spring storm left areas in the zone close to the Cascade crest with up 2-3 feet of snow through Tuesday. Accumulations in the Wenatchee Mountains were in less, closer to 1 ft. Temperatures were cold on Wednesday morning, and this combined with a cool east breeze may have limited natural wet avalanche activity. A recent wind slab avalanche was observed on NE facing alpine terrain in the upper Cle Elum drainage on Wednesday, this slide may have occurred on Tuesday. Observers found heavily wind affected snow in alpine terrain of the Chiwaukums and Mission Ridge the past few days. With a rapid warmup in the forecast for Thursday, temperatures are expected to climb a few notches higher than we saw on Wednesday. There is uncertainty as to how the snowpack may react, but we expect to see increased avalanche activity because of it. Thursday is another great day to let the snowpack adjust before targeting steeper or more committing terrain.

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