Avalanche forecast

Tetons

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Incremental loading of new snow this last week with moderate wind has created firm cohesive slabs in specific terrain where triggering an avalanche is possible. Areas where you will most likely encounter these wind slabs are upper elevations in exposed terrain. Watch for indications of wind slabs such as cracking, stiffened surfaces, or drifts. Buried weak layers, although less likely to trigger, still exist and should be assessed in the areas explained in the Problems section.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Consistent snowfall during this last week combined with moderate S/SW winds has formed wind slabs that range 6 to 24 inches deep. These slabs will be most concerning in the upper elevations, but could be found in isolated features in the middle elevations. Areas with the highest likelihood of encountering a wind slab are exposed terrain such as ridgelines, cirques, or confined features like couloirs. Monitor new snow today, especially in areas where banding sets up that could cause higher than forecasted snowfall amounts more than 3 inches. 

    Watch for increased instability of new snow during periods of rapid warming on solar aspects if the forecasted cloud cover dissipates by this afternoon. Solar input on snow surfaces increases significantly this time of year with the arrival of spring.

     

     

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The Feb 18th weak layer of concern is buried 2-3’ above a firm, cohesive slab. Recent avalanche activity on this layer has been scarce, but propagating results in stability tests cannot be ignored. This layer is composed of a facet, crust combination found on solar aspects in the middle and upper elevations. Lower elevations contain this same combination, as well as weak, faceted snow on sheltered aspects. Before riding consequential slopes, dig down to identify this layer and perform stability tests. 

     

Avalanche Discussion

Complacency

This last week brought a plethora of new snow creating excellent Teton powder riding conditions. New snow instability has decreased, leaving wind slabs as the main avalanche concern. Yesterday afternoon, cloud cover broke in certain areas creating rapid warming of snow surfaces. This was the first significant warming of new snow that fell during cold conditions. This first wave of rapid warming causes increased instability of snow on solar aspects. Cloud cover could dissipate by this afternoon, so monitor the effect of direct sunlight on those southerly and westerly aspects. 

With the quick approaching arrival of spring and as new snow settles, it’s easy to become complacent assuming the snowpack has stabilized. Unfortunately we still have a complex snowpack. No avalanche activity has been reported on the Feb 18th layer, but propagating test results on certain aspects and elevations is still concerning and uncertain. Keep this problem in the back of your head, especially if you’re venturing into terrain with a shallow snowpack such as wind scoured slopes or the Northern Tetons. It has been a long season, don’t let complacency throw off your mind set. Consequential terrain should always be thoroughly assessed as snow constantly evolves to changing weather conditions.

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