Avalanche forecast

Salt Lake

Issued Jan 13, 2025valid to Jan 14, 2025Utah Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger

Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline

Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is MODERATE at mid and upper elevations and LOW in the lowest elevation terrain. MODERATE with a buried persistent weak layer is different than MODERATE with other avalanche types. It will be possible for humans to trigger avalanches 2'-4' deep and up to 400' wide in thin rocky zones or in areas where avalanches have already occurred this season (repeater avalanches).

Cautious route finding and conservative decision making are essential for enjoying this most recent snow.

Avalanche problems

Persistent Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
3
The buried weak layer of faceted snow (PWL) is still intact on many aspects. It is now spotty and harder to find, but the avalanche triggered by the third skier on the slope in Butler yesterday is similar to what you may find on steep slopes harboring weak dry faceted snow near the ground. These slopes will all have a thinner snowpack and may be in mid-elevation terrain from 8,000-9,500'. A repeater avalanche is an avalanche that has already slid this season and may have a shallower thinner snowpack. These repeater zones are places where I would use more caution.

Utah Avalanche Center Forecaster Greg Gagne talks about propagation on this weak dry layer of facets in his snowpit results from Mineral Fork in the video below.
Storm Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
1
You may see shallow loose dry avalanches in the newest snow today. There is lots of new snow available for transport. With shifting winds overnight and forecasted to increase through the day today, we can expect to see shallow drifts on all aspects in upper and mid elevation terrain. Look for and avoid pillowy rounded areas of new snow and steep wind loaded slopes underneath newly formed cornices.

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Recent Activity

Yesterday, there was a close call where the third skier on the slope triggered this persistent weak layer avalanche (photo below) on a north facing aspect around 9,000' and was partially buried with only their head and arm above the surface. This is bullseye terrain for triggering an avalanche on the buried persistent weak layer. Check out all observations and avalanches HERE.

Photo (Stauss)

Snow and Weather

Under mostly clear skies, temperatures are hovering in the single digits °F. Winds are blowing lightly from the north at most weather stations. Storm totals range from 10"-25" of snow and .9"-1.50" of water. Snow depths throughout the range vary from 40"-86". For today, look for mostly clear skies to start the day with increasing clouds and the chance for light snow and maybe some riming this afternoon. Temperatures will be between 14-20 °F with light winds from the north 5 gusting to 10 MPH at the lower ridgelines and 15 gusting to 20 MPH at the highest ridgelines. Winds may increase throughout the day. Snow conditions right now are all time, and there were reports from the backcountry of excellent powder turns on all aspects. The sun never warmed enough yesterday to put a crust on the solar aspects (south-west) and I would imagine you can find soft surface snow most everywhere. The benefit of this is that you can find great travel on lower angle solar aspects, and it's easy to avoid the steeper terrain where the persistent weak layer may be lurking.

Additional Info

The avalanche danger scale is not linear, which means that the avalanche danger doesn't jump quickly between levels. It is a much more gradual change, and right now we are on the highest end of the MODERATE danger scale, which means that you may see travel advice that more closely matches what we would see during periods of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. The snowpack is solid MODERATE right now, but the human factor is always an unknown. Read more about the non-linear nature of the avalanche scale HERE.

Longtime avalanche forecaster Eric Trenbeath writes more about MODERATE danger with a buried persistent weak layer HERE.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures