The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on all steep, wind drifted slopes near and above treeline that face NW-N-NE-SE. In these areas, human triggered avalanches involving fresh slabs of wind drifted snow over a foot deep are likely. On northwest through east aspects, triggered wind slabs have the potential to step down into a buried persistent weak layer causing a deeper and much more dangerous avalanche. This type of terrain should be avoided today.
A MODERATE danger exists on all other aspects and elevations for avalanches involving the most recent storm snow. Look for signs of instabilty such as cracking in the snow surface. Utilize test slopes to see how the snow is behaving before biting off larger terrain.
Heavy snowfall and strong winds have formed fresh slabs of wind drifted snow on steep slopes near and above treeline facing NW-N-NE-SE. Avalanches involving wind driftd snow will dangerous enough at up to a foot deep or more. These fresh difts are also adding more stress to buried persistent weak layers, and this is reason enough to avoid this kind of terrain.
I'm uncertain how the new snow is going to affect our persistent weak layer problem but I'm going to assume it's going to get worse before it gets better. A week of very warm temperatures has helped to strengthen our snowpack, but there is still a possibility for large avalanches failing on faceted layers buried deeply in the pack. The threat is greatest on steep northerly aspects near treeline, but below treeline slopes also have poor snowpack structure on northerly aspects. Continue to avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees where this structure exists.
We will want to pay attention to how the new snow is behaving today. It is high density and could be inverted on top of colder lower density snow from earlier this week. This can produce an unstable situation. It should be fairly easy to figure out if the new snow is sensitive:
It looks like we're going to see a period of stronger wind later this afternoon and this is always a big contributor to unstable conditions. Watch for drifting and avoid the fresh drifts and pillows on steep slopes.
Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Brett "Kowboy" Kobernick where he discusses faceted persistent weak layers and how "nobody is immune from getting killed in an avalanche."
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
There won't be any construction on the loop road today and it will be open.
The Utah Avalanche Center is excited to host Mountainfilm on Tour in Moab at Star Hall on 3/21 and 3/22. Click here for tickets and information.
We are happy to announce the launch of our new mobile application available on both Android and IOS. Get all the information you need to plan your backcountry adventure and keep the information at the tip of your fingers while you are out. Install the Android version here and the IOS version here.
Geyser Pass Road: Grand County will not be plowing today. Expect up to 6 inches or more on the road with deeper drifts. 4x4 required.
Grooming Conditions: Trails are covered in new snow.
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 11" 72 Hour Snow: 11" Season Total Snow: 97" Depth at Gold Basin: 49"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: N/A Temp: 11° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 79%
Weather
Pre Laurel Peak wind station and the Gold Basin storm stake are down as we install upgrades including a web cam to the site.
After cranking all day yesterday, southwest winds began backing off overnight and it looks like we picked up close to a foot of new snow at just over an inch of Snow Water Equivalent. We'll see a lingering chance for snow this morning with partly sunny skies later today. Southwest winds will be light to moderate shifting to the northwest by afternoon. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 20's. Saturday looks mostly sunny but with breezy northwest winds. Look for a beautiful day on Sunday. Next chance for snow is early next week.
General Conditions
It was a wild and wooly day up there yesterday with strong winds and fits and starts of snowfall that finally kicked in late afternoon. The new snow will greatly improve conditions, especially in sheltered areas, but it's not the time to step out into avalanche terrain. We still have a persistent weak layer problem and this is just enough of a load to keep it active, but maybe not quite enough to create glaring, outward signs of instability. Sensitive fresh slabs of wind drifted snow have formed on leeward slopes, primarily on those with a north or easterly aspect. Dangerous enough on their own, they are also adding more stress to the persistent weak layer. Additionally, we may have some instability within the new snow on all aspects. Be alert to signs of new snow instability such as cracking in the snow surface or blocks forming between your skis. Keep your terrain choices conservative today until we see how things behave. Ryan Huels was out and about yesterday as well, check out his observation here.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
