Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Heavy snowfall and strong winds today will create dangerous avalanche conditions at all elevations. Storm slab avalanches could break on the old snow/new snow interface and be several feet deep and able to break widely across the slope or step down into deeper weak layers in the snowpack.  Persistent slab avalanches remain possible on weak layers near the ground or in the middle of the snowpack.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper than 30 degrees, paying attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses.  Avoid slopes that are actively loading.

 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    New snow and wind will continue to load and stress deeper buried weak layers. Near and below treeline is where you're more likely to find and impact depth hoar and faceted weak layers near the ground.  At upper elevations, faceted crusts and small-grained facet layers between harder slabs linger in the middle of the snowpack.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper than 30 degrees as it's possible to trigger an avalanche from a distance away.  Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses.  A smaller point release or storm slab avalanche could step down into these deeper weak layers creating a very large and most likely unsurvivable avalanche.  These persistent slab avalanches could run long distances well into the flats below.   With a long-duration storm and significant snowfall, we will be inching closer to a  potential tipping point on many slopes.   

     

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Another round of significant snow today and strong westerly winds will continue to drift snow into reactive storm slabs.  These newly drifted slabs will be adding to the 2 feet of snow we received from the storm prior to this latest atmospheric river event. Storm slab avalanches could break within the storm snow or several feet deep at the old snow interface from last Wednesday,  These storm slab avalanches could be large on their own, propagating several hundred across the slope. There's also the possibility that a storm slab avalanche could step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. The most dangerous slopes will be on the leeward sides of ridgelines, and cross-loaded terrain features where you find obvious wind-drifted pillows and a stiffening of snow underfoot. 

    With a wet heavy storm and strong winds, expect cornices to continue to grow over the next several days.  These cornices can break back further than you might expect on ridgelines and could break off naturally creating a large trigger on the slopes below. 

Avalanche Discussion

We will be doing daily avalanche forecasts throughout the week, as changing and dangerous avalanche conditions are expected.

What an active streak of weather as another Atmospheric River (AR) event takes aim for northern NM.  Snowfall yesterday was about 6 inches of snow with 0.8" of SWE.  Westerly winds have been in the teens and 20's with gusts in the 40 to 60 mph range over the last 24 hours.  Snowfall is expected to continue Tuesday and really ramp up by mid-day and continue through Wednesday where we could pick up an additional 2 to 3 feet of snow.  Moderate to strong westerly winds will continue today and ramp up on Wednesday. We may not see much of a break with the possibility of continued snow and windy weather through the weekend. 

Before the snow started falling yesterday morning, westerly winds picked up and were drifting a lot of the lower-density snow in the fetches onto the leeward sides of ridgelines at upper elevations. New snow yesterday and strong winds continued to drift and load slopes throughout the day and overnight. Early reports this morning are of strong upsloping from the box canyon wind effect we see in our range.  Expect to see drifting in atypical places.  We may see somewhat of an upside-down snowpack with freshly wind-drifted stiffer slabs over lower-density snow from the previous storm.    

The persistent weak layers near the ground that has plagued us much of the season won't have much time to adjust to the latest round of loading since Thursday that brought 2.5" of snow water equivalent (SWE). With heavy snowfall and strong winds forecasted into Thursday, we could pick up several feet of snow and close push to 5" of SWE over the last week. Near and below treeline terrain is where depth hoar near the ground continues to linger and remain reactive in a relatively shallow snowpack (< 1.5 m) prior to last week's storm.  At upper elevations, there's still a threat of triggering an avalanche near the ground, but most slopes have a deeper snowpack where impacting these layers would be more difficult. In the middle of the snowpack, small-grained facets sandwiched between harder slabs and faceted crusts have been observed but are not widespread.  Most of these layers have been found on north and easterly aspects near and above treeline.  These storms over a week period will be the biggest snowfall events of the season and may push us into a hard-to-forecast, deep persistent slab avalanche problem especially if we see the higher end of the forecasted amounts over the next several days.  

This is another warm storm, with a high snow level (about 9500 to 9000') through Wednesday.  This could mean we see rain on snow events at lower elevations and the potential for wet slab avalanches in the shallow weak snowpack that exists on many of these lower elevation slopes.  

We've issued an Avalanche Watch for Tuesday, with the anticipation of issuing an Avalanche Warning this evening into Wednesday as avalanche danger rises to HIGH.  

Regions covered