Confidence
Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Wednesday
Weather Forecast
Wednesday: Moderate to locally heavy snowfall starting Tuesday night and continuing Wednesday / Moderate northwest winds / Freezing level at 1500mThursday: Light snowfall / Moderate northwest winds / Freezing level at 1200m Friday: Light snowfall intensifying throughout the afternoon / Light south winds / Freezing level at 1000m
Avalanche Summary
On Monday a couple of slab avalanche to size 2.5 were remotely triggered by a skier from 300m away. The avalanches occurred on a northwest aspect in the high alpine. The early April surface hoar/ facet interface is though to be the culprit.
Snowpack Summary
At upper elevations 20-45cm of recent snow is covering a crust or moist snow. At the same interface you may find a touchy layer of facets or surface hoar on shaded high alpine slopes. Where they exist, these weak crystals have been responsible for large remote triggers. The variable and reactive nature of this layer suggests that it may continue to catch people by surprise. I'd dig down and test for this weakness before committing to any exposed alpine terrain.At lower elevations (below 1700m) rain has made the snow surface wet or moist. Recent snowfall combined with wind have made large cornices even bigger.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.