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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 1st, 2019–Feb 2nd, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Snowfall amounts for Friday night are uncertain. If the new snow amount is locally 30 cm or more the avalanche danger will be HIGH. Click here for summary of the current conditions and what to expect with some new snow.

Confidence

Low - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY Night: Snow, accumulation 15-25 cm, moderate to strong southwest winds, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 1100 m.SATURDAY: Cloudy with flurries, accumulation up to 5 cm, light to moderate southwest winds, alpine temperature -2 C, freezing level 1300 m.SUNDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries, light east winds, alpine temperature -20 C.MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light east wind, alpine temperature -25.

Avalanche Summary

A small wind slab avalanche was triggered by a skier on Thursday on an easterly aspect. The likelihood of triggering avalanches is expected to increase with incoming snow with strong southwest winds. Click here to see a recent Instragram post regarding the sensitivity of a recently buried weak layer of surface hoar in the Flathead.

Snowpack Summary

New snow Friday night is expected to fall with strong southwest winds. Expect to find new wind slabs form in lee and cross-loaded terrain features near ridges. The new snow will overly feathery surface hoar crystals, previously wind-affected snow, and a melt-freeze crust on southerly aspects.Buried around 20 to 50 cm, a weak layer of surface hoar may be found on shady and sheltered slopes. Use added caution between 1500 m and 1900 m, where this layer is most prominent. On southerly aspects, the snow overlies a hard melt-freeze crust all the way to the mountain tops.The remainder of the snowpack is generally well-settled. Thin snowpack areas, such as in the east of the region, may find weak and sugary faceted grains near the base of the snowpack.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.