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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 7th, 2019–Jan 8th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Coast.

The incoming storm is expected to bring rain on top of snow, creating a good recipe for avalanches by Tuesday night.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY: 15-20 cm snow beginning late morning. Freezing level climbing from 900 m to 1700 m by evening, and snow turning to rain on the North Shore. Moderate to strong south-easterly winds. Alpine high -1. Expect a further 20-30 mm/cm overnight.WEDNESDAY: 20-30 cm snow above about 1700 m, with slush/rain below. Moderate south-easterly winds. Alpine high near -1. Expect a further 25-30 mm/cm overnight. THURSDAY: 10-20 cm snow above about 1700 m. Moderate southerly winds. More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported. Please submit any observations you have to the Mountain Information Network here.

Snowpack Summary

At alpine and treeline elevations in the north of the region, 70-100 cm recent storm snow is slowly settling. Recent snowpack tests around treeline indicated some storm snow instabilities. Below the recent storm snow, a melt freeze crust exists, with associated facets (sugar snow) in some areas. Further south on the North Shore mountains, around 10 cm snow overlies a crust.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.