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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 9th, 2016–Feb 10th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Another burst of warm conditions will keep the danger levels elevated on Wednesday. Conservative route selection is advised.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Wednesday will be cloudy with sunny periods with no precipitation expected. Alpine temperature will reach a high of 0 C, with freezing levels climbing to 2100m. Ridge-top winds will be out of the west at 20 km/h gusting to 50 km/h. Thursday will be slightly cooler, and then a weak system approaches the region on Friday.

Avalanche Summary

Several loose wet up to size 1.5 were observed today principally on solar aspects. Avalanche control on EEOR produced 5 avalanches up to size 2.0 that ran full path.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack is settling with warm temperatures. Surface snow went moist on all aspects at all elevations except for extremely sheltered and shaded North aspects. Crusts are likely to form by morning. Cornices are sagging, and if they fail they could produce sizable avalanches on the slopes below. Recently formed storm slabs and wind slabs are gaining strength and becoming less of a concern. The chief problem in the snowpack remains the Jan 6th interface of surface hoar/sun crust/facets. This layer is down 35 to 80cm and continues to produce shears in snowpack stability tests. If this layer is triggered, large avalanches are possible.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.