Avalanche forecast

South Rockies

Nov 26 – 27, 2012Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

This bulletin is based on a very small amount of stale data. Significant variations in conditions exist. Check out the Forecasters Blog for further details on interpreting early season bulletins.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–4
    Windslabs are likely getting less sensitive by the day, but you should still be suspect of steep wind loaded features at and above treeline.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–4
    The early November crust can be found near the base of the snowpack.  Around a meter of snow rests on this crust.  It's getting hard to trigger, but I suspect you could still activate it in areas where the 'pack is thin and/or rocky.

Confidence

Poor - Due to limited field observations

Weather Forecast

Tuesday looks very similar to Monday.  Alpine temps should clock in at -7 with light SW winds.  The surface ridge that the region has been under breaks down beginning Wednesday.  Look for slightly warmer alpine temps on Wednesday along with a chance of precipitation in the afternoon.  I'm currently expecting 5 - 10 cm of snow late in the day Wednesday.  Thursday may deliver a bit more snow, check back for more details tomorrow. 

Avalanche Summary

There has also been a couple second hand reports of large whumphing in the Harvey pass area and triggering large size avalanche that could have run on the lower November crust.? If you and your friends have been out exploring and riding in the backcountry, and have some observations to share please send us an email to [email protected]. Lizard range info: Several Natural size 2.0 avalanches were reported on N-E aspects @ 1900m-2100m. Explosives control also produced size 1.5-2.0 avalanches on N aspects near the same elevation bands. These avalanches initiated in the current storm snow, and did not step down to deeper instabilities.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack observations and information are extremely limited, and conditions across the region vary. In the alpine I suspect 100 + cm of snow, and treeline seeing an average around 90 cm. Storms slabs and wind slabs likely exist in alpine and treeline elevations. An early season (Nov 8) rain crust has been reported to exist around 2000 m and above on NW-NE aspects. I have no further information in regards to this crust, how deep its buried or reactive it may be. I do know that it has been a reactive sliding layer in other regions to the North, which makes me suspect this could be a problem also in the South Rockies. In the alpine I suspect 100 + cm of snow, and treeline seeing an average around 90 cm. Below treeline snow levels may just be reaching threshold.

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