Avalanche forecast

South Rockies

Mar 29 – 30, 2015Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Warmth is the main driver of avalanche hazard at the moment. Minimize your exposure to large slopes if the snowpack is becoming moist or wet.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–3
    New snow that fell over the weekend will be subject to very warm temps and direct solar Monday which will likely drive a widespread loose wet avalanche cycle.  Large visor like cornices that overhang many ridge-tops will also be prone to failure.

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–5
    As the snowpack is subjected to significant warmth, the bond that fresh wind slabs and small storm slabs have with the underlying crust should rapidly decay.  Potentially large wet slabs are possible Monday.

Confidence

Fair

Weather Forecast

Monday: Freezing level starting near 2400m, rising to 2800m in the afternoon. Moderate SW winds at treeline. Strong W/SW winds at ridgetop. Mostly clear skies. No significant precipitation expected.Tuesday: Freezing level starting around 2200m, lowering to 1500m by days end. Strong SW winds at treeline, Extreme SW winds at ridgetop. No significant precipitation expected.Wednesday: Freezing level hovering around 1500m. Clear skies initially, some cloud building in the afternoon. Moderate SW/W winds at treeline, Strong W winds at treeline. No significant precipitation.

Avalanche Summary

No recent observations. In the neighboring Lizard Range a size 2.5 avalanche that was likely triggered by cornice fall was observed Saturday, but the bulk of the observed activity was limited to minor sluffing and small loose wet avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Sustained warm temperatures are helping to rapidly settle the snowpack at and below treeline. Ongoing SW winds have likely left lingering wind slabs on north through east facing features. The mid-March rain crust is down 30-60cm and has shown a good bond with snow above. Old persistent weak layers are still intact in the mid and lower snowpack. There is potential for these layers to wake up with sustained warming and/or significant rain. Recent cornice growth has been reported and these cornices may become fragile with daytime warming.

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