Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 2nd, 2019–Jan 4th, 2019

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Main concerns: Storm Slab, Loose Wet.

Travel & Terrain Advice

Avoid avalanche terrain during the storm period. Carefully choose routes that avoid over head hazard and select non avalanche or simple terrain where possible. If entering terrain lee to the prevailing winds, avoid convex roll features and steep terrain as new storm slab instabilities will remain touchy to human triggers during and after the storm cycle.

Avalanche Summary

A few loose dry and loose wet avalanches reported being triggered by ski cutting. No new Alpine avalanches observed during periods of clear and optimal observation periods.

Snowpack Summary

New storm snow and strong south west wind has deposited snow on rain crust that was present but would not support a skier. Prior to the storm, surface hoar was reported and this may be buried on isolated terrain that was protected from the wind. A non reactive crust buried on December 22nd can now be found down 50 cm and is currently non reactive to testing . The mid and lower snow pack are well settled and dense.

Snowpack Details

Surface: New snow wind effected and wind loaded. Upper: A rain crust can be found down between 10 to 20 cm and on lee aspects upto 50cm. Mid: Well settled. Lower: Well settled.

Past Weather

Cool and clear and calm conditions with very little precipitation. These conditions promoted the development of surface hoar.

Weather Forecast

A parade of strong weather fronts will bring to the area over the forecast period, strong south west wind and precipitation amounts that could exceed 100 centimeters over the next 72 hours. Freezing levels will initially rise above 1500 m with the arrival of the first front. In the wake of this initial front freezing levels should drop down to the 1000 meter mark. Expect almost continually precipitation and strong south west winds during this forecast period.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.