Avalanche forecast

Vancouver Island

Jan 3 – 5, 2019
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Fri
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Main concerns:  Storm Slab, Loose Wet.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3
    Storm slabs will be found on all aspects and elevation, exceeding size two in size and will be touchy to very touchy to human triggering. Expect to find these slabs to be especially destructive on north aspects due to the strong south western winds.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2
    Loose wet will be very likely to be occurring naturally on steep terrain and will certainly be trigger by skier traffic as the storm brings warming temperature and deposits precipitation in the form of rain on the snow pack. Expect these avalanche to be found on all aspects and at elevations, treeline and below.

Travel & Terrain Advice

Avoid avalanche terrain during the storm period. Carefully choose routes that avoid over head hazard and select non avalanche or simple terrain where possible. If entering terrain lee to the prevailing winds, avoid convex roll features and steep terrain as new storm slab instabilities will remain touchy to human triggers during and after the storm cycle.

Avalanche Summary

A few loose dry and loose wet avalanches reported being triggered by ski cutting. No new Alpine avalanches observed during periods of clear and optimal observation periods.

Snowpack Summary

New storm snow and strong south west wind has deposited snow on rain crust that was present but would not support a skier. Prior to the storm, surface hoar was reported and this may be buried on isolated terrain that was protected from the wind. A non reactive crust buried on December 22nd can now be found down 50 cm and is currently non reactive to testing . The mid and lower snow pack are well settled and dense.

Snowpack Details

Surface: New snow wind effected and wind loaded. Upper: A rain crust can be found down between 10 to 20 cm and on lee aspects upto 50cm. Mid: Well settled. Lower: Well settled.

Past Weather

Cool and clear and calm conditions with very little precipitation. These conditions promoted the development of surface hoar.

Weather Forecast

A parade of strong weather fronts will bring to the area over the forecast period, strong south west wind and precipitation amounts that could exceed 100 centimeters over the next 72 hours. Freezing levels will initially rise above 1500 m with the arrival of the first front. In the wake of this initial front freezing levels should drop down to the 1000 meter mark. Expect almost continually precipitation and strong south west winds during this forecast period.

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