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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 9th, 2019–Jan 10th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Columbia.

New snow combined with wind is promoting continued wind slab development in the alpine and treeline.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy with flurries, accumulation of 5-10 cm, moderate southwest winds, alpine temperature -6 CTHURSDAY: Isolated flurries, moderate southwest winds, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 1200mFRIDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods, light to moderate southwest winds, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 1300 mSATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light southwest winds, alpine temperature 1 C, possible temperature inversion

Avalanche Summary

A size 3-3.5 persistent slab avalanche was skier triggered on the north side of the highway in Glacier National Park on Tuesday. This was triggered from a thin spot on the ridge at 2250 m on a south east aspect It ran to the valley bottom and is suspected to have run on a layer of surface hoar sitting on a crust that was buried in late November. See the MIN post here.

Snowpack Summary

Snowfall combined with wind on Wednesday into Thursday will have formed new wind slabs in lee and cross-loaded terrain features at high elevations. This new snow has fallen on widespread wind-affected snow at alpine and treeline elevations. Below this, the snowpack is generally well-settled. There is however, a layer of feathery surface hoar that is sitting on a crust that was buried late November down 100-200 cm. This crust is suspected to be the bed surface for few very large avalanches over the past several days on southwest through southeast aspects in this region.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.