New snow will load a weak snowpack. It will remain likely for a while that humans can trigger deep persistent slabs. Best to avoid alpine avalanche terrain and travel very cautiously at treeline and below, whilst limiting overhead exposure.
Confidence
Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, moderate to strong west winds, alpine temperature -8 C, freezing level below valley bottom.THURSDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, moderate to strong southwest winds, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level rising to 1300 m.FRIDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, moderate to strong southwest winds, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 1500 m.SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light to moderate southwest wind, freezing level 1000 m.
Avalanche Summary
A naturally-triggered large (size 3) avalanche was observed on Wednesday near Elkford, which likely released on Tuesday. It ran full-path to valley bottom. New snow on Thursday will increase the likelihood of observing such avalanches.
Snowpack Summary
Large variability in snow depths still exists in the region, ranging from practically no snow to almost 200 cm. Variable snowfall amounts are forecasted for Thursday, ranging from 5 to 20 cm. New snow will form fresh slabs across the mountains. Expect the deepest snow accumulation in lee terrain features, as the snow will fall with strong southwest winds. This snow will sit on previous hard wind slabs, a scoured and shallow snowpack on exposed southerly ridges, and generally soft snow in sheltered areasAround 60 to 90 cm of snowfall in December has formed a slab that sits on a persistent weak layer of weak and sugary faceted snow that formed during dry and cold weather in early December. This layer is most likely to be triggered on steep features where snowpack depths are variable.The lower snowpack has a weak structure composed primarily of sugary faceted snow around a crust near the ground. Should a shallower avalanche be triggered, it is likely that it would step down and scour to the ground.
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.