Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 30th, 2019–Feb 1st, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Confidence

Moderate - Weather models not in agreement as to timing and type of precip falling (rain vs snow).

Travel & Terrain Advice

Keep a keen eye on what actual type of precipitation that falls Thursday into Friday. Weather models are not in agreement at this point so do your research and plan according to what actually takes place (rain vs snow). Give cornices a wide berth from above and below as they get additional loading from rain and or snow.

Avalanche Summary

A few loose wet avalanches have been seen falling off steep rocky faces on solar aspects at all elevation bands (BTL TL and ALP) up to size one, with recent day time heating.

Snowpack Summary

Spring seams to have arrived once again to the island snowpack.

Snowpack Details

Surface: Thin non supportive melt freeze crust remains intact on non solar aspect and melts during the day in the sun. Upper: approx 20-30 cm of well settled snow over a beefy thick old crust. Mid: well settled. Lower: well settled.

Past Weather

Spring like weather and snow conditions. No new snow has fallen in the forecast region over the past three days. Temperatures have been mainly above zero and have been as high as 10 degrees during the day time up in the hills with a slight temperature inversion.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: mix of sun and cloud, potential light rain late in the day/evening, temps 2 to 7 degrees, winds Light SW, freezing level 2400-2700 m. Thursday: light rain during the day changing to light to mod snowfall overnight, temps 5 to -1 degrees, winds light SW rising to moderate S, freezing levels 2500 dropping to 1100 m. Friday: light to moderate snowfall early on, tapering off during the day to light flurries, temps 0 to -4 degrees, moderate SW winds, freezing level 1200 to 900 m.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.