Avalanche Forecast

Showers should decrease late Saturday morning through mid-day and become light and scattered in the afternoon. Sunbreaks are possible in the afternoon. The air mass will be cooler, but it's spring-time and solar effects should push temperatures near to above freezing at lower and mid-elevations in the afternoon.  

We continue to load and stress our snowpack. Don't push it in consequential avalanche terrain - keep it simple and conservative and wait for this pattern to break. Recent storm/wind slab concerns up high and loose wet potential on steeper solar aspects/lower elevations will challenge us to manage terrain safely. Cornices have recently proven dangerous and unpredictable and capable of triggering very large avalanches.   

Recent winds have been mostly S-SW, so firmer wind slab should be found mainly on NW-SE slopes near and above treeline. Avoid recently wind loaded slopes as human triggered avalanches are considered likely. There is the potential for very large wind slab avalanches on lee slopes above treeline due to the persistent loading pattern. 

New storm snow is expected to bond well due to a cooling trend Friday night but storm slab may still become locally sensitive in areas that receive rapid accumulations Friday night or Saturday morning. 

Subtle daytime warming and/or potential sunbreaks Saturday afternoon will increase the potential for loose wet avalanches on steeper solar slopes and at lower elevations. Loose wet avalanches won't be listed as an avalanche problem, but watch for surface wet snow deeper than a few inches, pinwheels and increasing natural releases. Avoid steeper slopes with terrain traps where even small loose wet avalanches could have unintended consequences. 

You need to avoid areas on ridges where there may be a cornice and slopes below cornices! Natural cornice releases and resulting slab avalanches are unpredictable. See a blog post regarding cornices here.

Weather and Snowpack

The first week or so of March was very cool and snowy.  NWAC stations at Mt Hood piled up about 6-7 ft of snow.

The 2nd week of March was equally active with non-stop Pacific frontal systems pummeling the PNW. Unfortunately, these systems delivered far more rain than snow. At least two regional avalanche cycles occurred during the stretch. Significant snowpack consolidation occurred over this period due to rainfall and warmer temperatures. 

This past week has also been active weather-wise, but water amounts/snowfall totals have been slightly lower relative to the extreme wetness of the past few weeks. In the last 24 hours ending at 5 PM Friday, Mt. Hood stations have picked up 7-9" of snow above 5000'. A slight warming trend occurred during the day on Friday. Winds above treeline have been moderate out of the S-SW.  

Recent Observations

On Thursday, Mt. Hood Meadows reported widespread but stubborn shallow hard wind slab, 1-2 ft deep, on NE slopes between 6000 and 7300 ft. Small loose wet slides remained possible on steeper solar slopes. By Friday, 6-12" storm slabs were sensitive to ski cuts specifically on N-E aspects above treeline. Storm slabs were relatively less reactive near treeline. 

Laura Green was out in the Timberline area on Friday. Moderate winds, wet snow and poor visibility prevented her from accessing terrain above 6500 feet, but she could see active wind transport occurring in the elevations she traveled. 1 natural wet slab, 20 cm deep, was observed below treeline but in general the rain moistened snow below treeline was not very sensitive to human triggering and no other natural wet snow activity was observed.